Recent form
6-4
CHW +1.1 vs NYM -0.1 margin
CHW brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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New York Mets at Chicago White Sox
NYM
NYM
58-71
PregameSun, 2:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
CHW
CHW
67-61
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketRate Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Nolan McLean
SP · #26
9-8
W-L
3.34
ERA
1.16
WHIP
162
K
142.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSDW(9-8)6.0 IP1 ER3 K
@ATLL(8-8)6.0 IP1 ER3 K
@CLEW(8-7)5.0 IP5 ER8 K
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesCHW lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CHW vs NYM.
CHW is 6-4 recently; NYM is 6-4.
59.3%
model · CHW win prob
Recent form
- CHW6–4+1.1
- NYM6–4-0.1
Situational
- CHW2d rest
- NYM2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHW has 0 straight road games; NYM has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Sean BurkeCHW6.8strikeouts · ±3.0
Sean Burke · 6.8 K · last-10 7.3 vs season 6.2.
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.5strikeouts · ±2.3
Nolan McLean · 6.5 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.5.
- Sean ManaeaNYM5.2strikeouts · ±2.4
Sean Manaea · 5.2 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 4.3.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
CHW is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-21NYM @ CHW4–6
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.4%
ensemble · CHW favored
Elo Static
58.3%
P(CHW win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
58.3%
P(CHW win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.6%
P(CHW win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.15 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHW vs NYM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 101 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Sean BurkeCHW6.8± 3.0high
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.5± 2.3high
- Christian ScottNYM6.2± 0.8medium
Hits
- Bo BichetteNYM1.3± 1.5high
- Miguel VargasCHW1.1± 1.1high
- Carson BengeNYM1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Miguel VargasCHW2.4± 3.2high
- Bo BichetteNYM2.1± 2.4high
- Luis TorrensNYM2.0± 2.5high
RBIs
- Luis TorrensNYM0.8± 1.4high
- Bo BichetteNYM0.7± 0.9high
- Andrew BenintendiCHW0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Luis CastilloCHW2.9± 1.7high
- Robert StockNYM2.5± 5.0low
- Sean ManaeaNYM2.2± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYM
league avg
CHW
.694
OPS
.718
▶.726
.306
OBP
.318
▶.317
4.15
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.77
4.08
Team ERA
4.16
4.06
1.30
WHIP
1.30
1.29
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.5
The One modelEdge
Sun, Aug 23NYM
Mets
68-83
vs59.3%CHW
CHW★
White Sox
83-68
NYM 40.7%win prob59.3% CHW
CHW 1527 · NYM 1493Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
