Recent form
5-5
ARI +0.1 vs CIN -1.4 margin
ARI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks
CIN
CIN
61-66
PregameFri, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
ARI
ARI
67-61
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketChase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Nick Lodolo
SP · #40
3-2
W-L
4.52
ERA
1.42
WHIP
57
K
71.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIA-5.0 IP0 ER2 K
@CHW-4.0 IP4 ER5 K
vsCHC-5.0 IP2 ER4 K
Home starter
Eduardo Rodriguez
SP · #57
12-4
W-L
2.71
ERA
1.21
WHIP
106
K
149.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATLW(12-4)6.0 IP2 ER5 K
vsLADW(11-4)7.0 IP2 ER9 K
vsSDL(10-4)5.2 IP5 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ARI vs CIN.
ARI is 5-5 recently; CIN is 5-5.
59.2%
model · ARI win prob
Recent form
- ARI5–5+0.1
- CIN5–5-1.4
Situational
- ARI2d rest
- CIN2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ARI has 6 straight road games; CIN has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Chase BurnsCIN6.4strikeouts · ±2.5
Chase Burns · 6.4 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.6.
- Brady SingerCIN4.9strikeouts · ±1.4
Brady Singer · 4.9 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 4.3.
- Andrew AbbottCIN4.3strikeouts · ±2.1
Andrew Abbott · 4.3 K · last-10 4.4 vs season 4.2.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.1%
ensemble · ARI favored
Elo Static
59.5%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.6%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.6%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.99 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ARI vs CIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chase BurnsCIN6.4± 2.5high
- Brady SingerCIN4.9± 1.4high
- Michael SorokaARI4.8± 2.8medium
Hits
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.3± 0.7high
- James McCannARI1.2± 1.4high
- Sal StewartCIN1.1± 0.6high
Total bases
- Gabriel MorenoARI2.4± 1.4high
- Corbin CarrollARI2.2± 2.4high
- Nolan ArenadoARI1.9± 2.9high
RBIs
- Gabriel MorenoARI0.8± 1.1high
- Nolan ArenadoARI0.8± 1.7high
- James McCannARI0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Merrill KellyARI3.1± 2.3high
- Rhett LowderCIN2.7± 2.6high
- Zack LittellARI2.6± 2.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CIN
league avg
ARI
.696
OPS
.719
▶.714
.305
OBP
.318
▶.316
4.05
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.52
4.48
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.18
1.40
WHIP
1.30
▶1.29
8.2
K / 9
◀
8.5
6.9
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 21CIN
Reds
70-78
vs59.2%ARI
ARI★
Diamondbacks
71-77
CIN 40.8%win prob59.2% ARI
ARI 1505 · CIN 1463Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- BravesBrewers8/21 - 4:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsPhillies8/21 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Blue JaysYankees8/21 - 7:05 PM EDT
- GiantsRed Sox8/21 - 7:10 PM EDT
- NationalsMarlins8/21 - 7:10 PM EDT
- RaysOrioles8/21 - 7:15 PM EDT
- MetsWhite Sox8/21 - 7:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsAstros8/21 - 8:10 PM EDT
- TigersRoyals8/21 - 8:10 PM EDT
- AngelsRangers8/21 - 8:15 PM EDT
- GuardiansRockies8/21 - 8:40 PM EDT
- TwinsPadres8/21 - 9:40 PM EDT
- CubsMariners8/21 - 10:10 PM EDT
- PiratesDodgers8/21 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
