Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at WSH?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

MIN

30-7

PregameFri, 7:30 PM EDTION

WSH

21-14

ATS/MIN -3.5O/U/162.5ML/MIN-166

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Recent form

9-1

MIN +9.4 vs WSH +4.8 margin

MIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Model rank

+198.0

WSH Elo vs MIN Elo

MIN owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing WSH uphill early today again.

WNBAFri, Aug 218/21 - 7:30 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -3.5

Preview · WNBA

innesota Lynx visit Washington Mystics Friday at 8/21 - 7:30 PM EDT. MIN arrives on a 5-game win streak (6-1 in their last 7). WSH is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8.

Vegas opened MIN as a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 162.5. WSH's moneyline implies a 42% break-even, MIN the inverse.

For bettors: the MIN side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 162.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

FG %

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 21

WSH84@

MIN79

Jun 24

MIN78@

WSH76

Aug 21

MIN@

WSHtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

162.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.4h

Moneyline

MIN-16662%

WSH+14042%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -3.5↗SpreadBet MIN -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

-3.0 since open

Total

162.5

-6.0 since open

Scouting report

MIN @ WSH

8/21 - 7:30 PM EDT

StorylineMIN riding a 5-game win streak.

Rest going in

MINStandard

1 day

last game Aug 19

WSHStandard

1 day

last game Aug 19

Model edge vs market

Strong edge

Spread

Market

MIN -3.5

Model

MIN -8.5

Edge

+5.0 pts

Total

Market

162.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

MIN -166

Model

MIN

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

MINmetricWSH

30-7

Record

21-14

Conf rank

+8.8

Pt diff

-0.4

Streak

9-1

Last 10

8-2

80.0

Power score

71.5

Power rank

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

MIN -3.5·O/U 162.5·MIN -166/WSH +140

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

WSH vs MIN.

WSH is 8-2 recently; MIN is 9-1.

23.5%

model · WSH win prob

Recent form

WSH8–2+4.8
MIN9–1+9.4

Situational

WSH2d rest
MIN2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. WSH has 0 straight road games; MIN has 3.

Model angle

+16.5ppon MIN

MIN's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Line steam is the main caution flag.

▼Line steam-1.8pp
▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▲Recent form+0.8pp

Players to watch

Olivia MilesMIN
19.8points · ±5.6
Olivia Miles · 19.8 pts · last-10 20.4 vs season 18.9.
Shakira AustinWSH
19.5points · ±5.8
Shakira Austin · 19.5 pts · last-10 21.4 vs season 16.6.
Kayla McBrideMIN
18.4points · ±9.2
Kayla McBride · 18.4 pts · last-10 18.6 vs season 18.1.

Head-to-head · 2-3 · last 5

WSH is 2-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-06-25MIN @ WSH64–68
2025-07-04WSH @ MIN75–92
2025-08-08WSH @ MIN76–80
2026-06-21WSH @ MIN84–79
2026-06-24MIN @ WSH78–76

Line move

open +200→+140toward WSH

The market has moved 8.3pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

22.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
32.4%
P(WSH win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
34.1%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
27.7%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

82% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like MIN.

MIN's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+16.5

pp edge · MIN

5.0u · large

on MIN

86.2%

±7.5pp band

5u large — +23.8pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+26.2pp

+9.7pp post-cal

Kelly

63.3%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.60

+23.8pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 16.5pp · MIN over WSH

▼
Line steam90% conf
The market moved 8.1pp away from MIN since open.
-1.8pp
▲
Model confidence90% conf
MIN clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
MIN is 5-0 over its last 5; WSH is 3-2.
+0.8pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
MIN is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-0.8pp
▲
Venue split70% conf
MIN's venue form is 6.7pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.3pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
MIN has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at WSH?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.5pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

-166DraftKings

edge +16.5pp · implied 60.0%

WSH

no live price

Book	MIN	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	-166★	+140	+16.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Olivia MilesMIN
19.8± 5.6high
Shakira AustinWSH
19.5± 5.8high
Napheesa CollierMIN
19.0± 3.8low

Rebounds

Shakira AustinWSH
9.5± 2.3high
Kiki IriafenWSH
8.9± 2.6high
Napheesa CollierMIN
7.4± 2.1low

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
6.5± 3.2high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.5± 2.5high
Sonia CitronWSH
4.4± 2.3high

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.2± 1.4high
Napheesa CollierMIN
1.1± 1.6low
Lauren BettsWSH
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.5high
Napheesa CollierMIN
1.5± 1.5low
Natasha HowardMIN
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Minnesota LynxWashington Mystics

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Minnesota Lynx at Washington Mystics

WSH vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like MIN.

Where to bet this game.

WSH vs MIN.