Minnesota Lynx at Washington Mystics
MIN
13-4
WSH
8-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
innesota Lynx visit Washington Mystics Friday at 8/21 - 7:30 PM EDT. MIN is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8. WSH arrives on a 3-game win streak (5-3 in their last 8).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
50
FG %
45
Season series
WSH leads series 1-0
WSH84@MIN79MIN@WSHupcomingMIN@WSHtodayScouting report
MIN @ WSH
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
MIN -26.8
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
MIN
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
13-4
Record
8-7
#1
Conf rank
#4
+11.9
Pt diff
-3.2
L1
Streak
W3
8-2
Last 10
6-4
80.7
Power score
53.8
#1
Power rank
#8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 20 high confidence
Points
- Olivia MilesMIN19.4± 7.6high
- Natasha HowardMIN16.7± 6.3medium
- Sonia CitronWSH16.6± 6.2medium
Rebounds
- Shakira AustinWSH8.1± 3.7low
- Kiki IriafenWSH7.7± 4.9low
- Natasha HowardMIN6.9± 2.5medium
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.4± 2.3high
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.0± 1.6high
- Sonia CitronWSH4.0± 2.7medium
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.6± 1.3high
- Shakira AustinWSH1.2± 1.2low
- Liatu KingMIN0.8± 1.6low
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN2.2± 2.0medium
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.5± 1.2medium
- Sonia CitronWSH1.4± 1.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
WSH
50.1%
FG%
44.6
45.1%
38.8%
3PT %
33.3
30.7%
91.5
PPG
85.9
81.6
21.6
Assists / G
18.0
18.6
13.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
15.9