Recent form
4-6
POR -2.4 vs TOR -14.2 margin
POR brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Portland Fire at Toronto Tempo
POR
POR
15-20
PregameFri, 10:00 PM EDTION
TOR
TOR
10-25
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
ortland Fire visit Toronto Tempo Friday at 8/21 - 10:00 PM EDT. POR is 4-3 in their last 7.
Vegas opened POR as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 183.5. TOR's moneyline implies a 45% break-even, POR the inverse.
For bettors: the POR side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 183.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
45
FG %
45
Season series
POR leads series 2-0
May 23POR99@TOR80
POR99@TOR80Aug 7TOR83@POR97
TOR83@POR97Aug 22POR@TORtoday
POR@TORtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -2.5
Between — and 5
1.0pt· 6.5h
Total
183.5
High-scoring · +18.5 vs avg
3.0pt· 6.5h
Moneyline
POR-14860%TOR+12445%14· 6.5h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
+1.0 since open
Total
183.5
-2.0 since open
Scouting report
POR @ TOR
StorylineTOR lost 12 in a row.
Rest going in
PORUnknown
—
TORStandard
2 days
last game Aug 19
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
POR -2.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
183.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
POR -148
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
PORmetricTOR
15-20
Record
10-25
#5
Conf rank
#6
-4.4
Pt diff
-6.6
W2
Streak
L12
4-6
Last 10
0-10
60.2
Sched ahead
50.9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
POR -2.5·O/U 183.5·POR -148/TOR +124
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
TOR vs POR.
TOR has dropped 12 straight; POR is 4-6 over its last 10.
40.2%
model · TOR win prob
Recent form
- TOR0–10-14.2
- POR4–6-2.4
Situational
- TOR2d rest
- POR5d rest
- -3.0d differential
POR has 3 more rest days. TOR has 1 straight road games; POR has 2.
Model angle
+2.6ppon POR
POR's edge is mostly recent form plus line steam. Model confidence is the main caution flag.
- ▲Recent form+1.1pp
- ▲Line steam+0.8pp
- ▲Venue split+0.8pp
Players to watch
- Marina MabreyTOR20.7points · ±8.0
Marina Mabrey · 20.7 pts · last-10 20.6 vs season 20.9.
- Bridget CarletonPOR16.3points · ±6.2
Bridget Carleton · 16.3 pts · last-10 17.6 vs season 14.3.
- Carla LeitePOR16.2points · ±6.9
Carla Leite · 16.2 pts · last-10 16.7 vs season 15.5.
Head-to-head · 0-2 · last 2
TOR is 0-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-05-23POR @ TOR99–80
- 2026-08-06TOR @ POR83–97
Line move
open +100→+114toward POR
The market has moved 3.3pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
40.2%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
44.9%
P(TOR win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
41.3%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
48.3%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.83 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
81% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Why we like POR.
POR's edge is mostly recent form plus line steam. Model confidence is the main caution flag.
+2.6
pp edge · POR
+5.03
CLV pp · steam
4.2u · large
on POR
66.4%
±8.1pp band
4.17u large — +6.7pp edge, quarter Kelly.
Edge
+9.2pp
+6.6pp post-cal
Kelly
16.7%
4.2% sized
Decimal
1.68
+6.7pp vs price
Contributor breakdown · sums to 2.6pp · POR over TOR
- ▲+1.1ppRecent form70% conf
POR is 4-1 over its last 5; TOR is 0-5.
- ▲+0.8ppLine steam77% conf
The market moved 3pp toward POR since open.
- ▲+0.8ppVenue split72% conf
POR's venue form is 23.5pp stronger in the recent sample.
- ▲+0.6ppRest advantage65% conf
POR has 5 days rest; TOR has 2.
- ▼-0.3ppModel confidence68% conf
POR is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
- ▼-0.3ppTravel burden58% conf
POR is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
Open price
-120
Close price
-148
Open no-vig
52.2%
Close no-vig
57.2%
Market steamed in our direction
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at TOR?
- The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+2.6pp
best edge · POR · DraftKings
POR
★ best-148DraftKings
edge +2.6pp · implied 57.2%
TOR
no live price
| Book | POR | TOR | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -148★ | +124 | +2.6 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
TOR vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 115 high confidence
Points
- Marina MabreyTOR20.7± 8.0high
- Brittney SykesTOR18.5± 9.7medium
- Bridget CarletonPOR16.3± 6.2high
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowTOR7.2± 4.3high
- Bridget CarletonPOR5.8± 2.9high
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR5.4± 3.6high
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR6.6± 3.5high
- Julie AllemandTOR5.6± 3.0high
- Marina MabreyTOR3.7± 1.6high
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR0.9± 0.7high
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR0.8± 1.1high
- Megan DiLeoPOR0.7± 0.8high
Steals
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.3± 1.0high
- Julie AllemandTOR1.3± 1.1high
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.2± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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