Portland Fire at Toronto Tempo
POR
8-9
TOR
8-8
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ortland Fire visit Toronto Tempo Friday at 8/21 - 10:00 PM EDT. TOR is 3-4 in their last 7.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
45
FG %
44
Season series
POR leads series 1-0
POR99@TOR80TOR@PORupcomingPOR@TORtodayScouting report
POR @ TOR
Tale of the tape
8-9
Record
8-8
#6
Conf rank
#5
-5.9
Pt diff
-2.0
W1
Streak
W1
4-6
Last 10
5-5
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
46.4%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Marina MabreyTOR19.6± 9.5medium
- Brittney SykesTOR18.1± 10.6medium
- Carla LeitePOR13.6± 5.7medium
Rebounds
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR5.3± 2.6low
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.2± 3.4medium
- Nyara SaballyTOR5.2± 2.2low
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR5.9± 3.6medium
- Marina MabreyTOR4.2± 2.7medium
- Julie AllemandTOR4.1± 3.1low
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.9± 0.9medium
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.1± 1.0low
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR0.7± 1.1low
Steals
- Julie AllemandTOR1.6± 1.3low
- Laura JuskaiteTOR1.6± 1.6medium
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR1.5± 2.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
POR
league avg
TOR
44.6%
FG%
44.7
43.8%
34.1%
3PT %
33.5
▶35.0%
82.2
PPG
85.9
▶89.6
19.8
Assists / G
18.0
19.4
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.8