Park factor
95 total idx
T-Mobile Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners
TB
TB
68-46
PregameSat, 9:50 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
SEA
SEA
56-60
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketT-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Griffin Jax
SP · #22
6-9
W-L
3.63
ERA
1.21
WHIP
100
K
91.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCHWL(6-9)5.0 IP1 ER8 K
vsTEXL(6-8)5.2 IP1 ER10 K
@TORW(6-7)6.0 IP1 ER5 K
Home starter
George Kirby
SP · #68
8-9
W-L
3.76
ERA
1.28
WHIP
110
K
127.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIN-7.0 IP0 ER3 K
@TEXL(8-9)4.0 IP7 ER3 K
vsCINW(8-8)6.0 IP0 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob71% / 29%
LeanAway · 21pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesTB leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
SEA vs TB.
SEA is 4-6 recently; TB is 7-3.
29.4%
model · SEA win prob
Recent form
- SEA4–6-2.6
- TB7–3+0.0
Situational
- SEA2d rest
- TB3d rest
- -1.0d differential
TB has 1 more rest day. SEA has 0 straight road games; TB has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.4pp
Players to watch
- Logan GilbertSEA6.7strikeouts · ±2.1
Logan Gilbert · 6.7 K · last-10 7 vs season 6.3.
- Bryan WooSEA5.8strikeouts · ±1.7
Bryan Woo · 5.8 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.8.
- Drew RasmussenTB5.8strikeouts · ±3.9
Drew Rasmussen · 5.8 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.6.
Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3
SEA is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-10SEA @ TB2–7
- 2026-07-11SEA @ TB1–6
- 2026-07-12SEA @ TB8–2
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
29.1%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
37.7%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.6%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.2%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.22 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs TB.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 119 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Logan GilbertSEA6.7± 2.0high
- Bryce MillerSEA5.9± 4.4low
- Bryan WooSEA5.8± 1.7high
Hits
- Cole YoungSEA1.3± 1.2high
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.3± 1.0high
- Randy ArozarenaSEA1.2± 1.2high
Total bases
- Junior CamineroTB2.3± 2.7high
- Randy ArozarenaSEA2.2± 2.4high
- Cole YoungSEA2.0± 1.7high
RBIs
- Cal RaleighSEA0.7± 1.0high
- Junior CamineroTB0.7± 0.9high
- Dominic CanzoneSEA0.6± 1.5high
Earned runs
- Freddy PeraltaTB3.7± 3.4high
- Bryan WooSEA3.1± 2.4high
- George KirbySEA2.6± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TB
league avg
SEA
.732
OPS
◀
.720
.687
.329
OBP
◀
.318
.310
4.47
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.95
3.74
Team ERA
◀
4.18
3.82
1.15
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.20
8.2
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One model★ Lock
Sat, Aug 8TB★
Rays
96-46
vs70.6%TB
SEA
Mariners
67-76
TB 70.6%win prob29.4% SEA
TB 1588 · SEA 1477Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- BravesYankees8/8 - 3:05 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/8 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/8 - 4:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysPhillies8/8 - 6:05 PM EDT
- MetsPirates8/8 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RedsNationals8/8 - 6:45 PM EDT
- CubsRoyals8/8 - 7:10 PM EDT
- TwinsBrewers8/8 - 7:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRangers8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- GuardiansWhite Sox8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- TigersGiants8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- DodgersDiamondbacks8/8 - 8:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
