Recent form
4-6
CHW -0.8 vs CLE -1.1 margin
CHW brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
CLE
CLE
57-59
PregameSat, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV, FOX
CHW
CHW
59-55
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketRate Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Gavin Williams
SP · #32
11-6
W-L
3.56
ERA
1.04
WHIP
178
K
139.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsARIW(11-6)5.2 IP0 ER10 K
@CINL(10-6)7.0 IP2 ER12 K
vsMIN-7.0 IP0 ER11 K
Home starter
Anthony Kay
SP · #18
8-5
W-L
4.01
ERA
1.35
WHIP
90
K
110.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@TBW(8-5)6.1 IP0 ER3 K
vsNYYL(7-5)5.1 IP3 ER7 K
@TEXW(7-4)5.0 IP2 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob46% / 54%
LeanHome · 4pp
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CHW vs CLE.
CHW has dropped 3 straight; CLE is 3-7 over its last 10.
53.8%
model · CHW win prob
Recent form
- CHW4–6-0.8
- CLE3–7-1.1
Situational
- CHW2d rest
- CLE2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHW has 6 straight road games; CLE has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.1strikeouts · ±3.0
Gavin Williams · 8.1 K · last-10 8.4 vs season 7.7.
- Sean BurkeCHW7.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Sean Burke · 7.1 K · last-10 7.7 vs season 6.3.
- Joey CantilloCLE6.1strikeouts · ±2.2
Joey Cantillo · 6.1 K · last-10 6.6 vs season 5.4.
Head-to-head · 2-2 · last 4
CHW is 2-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-02CHW @ CLE5–6
- 2026-07-03CHW @ CLE3–4
- 2026-07-04CHW @ CLE3–1
- 2026-07-05CHW @ CLE7–6
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.6%
ensemble · CHW favored
Elo Static
52.7%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.2%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.6%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.21 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHW vs CLE.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 123 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.1± 3.0high
- Sean BurkeCHW7.1± 2.4high
- Joey CantilloCLE6.1± 2.2high
Hits
- Nathaniel LoweCLE1.2± 1.2high
- Steven KwanCLE1.2± 1.0high
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW1.1± 0.8high
Total bases
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW2.3± 2.7high
- Miguel VargasCHW1.8± 1.7high
- Nathaniel LoweCLE1.7± 1.7high
RBIs
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW0.8± 1.9high
- Nathaniel LoweCLE0.7± 0.9high
- Miguel VargasCHW0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Noah SchultzCHW3.4± 2.6low
- Davis MartinCHW3.1± 3.4high
- Luis CastilloCHW2.5± 1.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CLE
league avg
CHW
.680
OPS
.720
▶.720
.312
OBP
.318
▶.316
3.96
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.77
3.82
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.10
1.27
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.31
9.4
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.6
The One modelTossup
Sat, Aug 8CLE
Guardians
77-65
vs53.8%CHW
CHW★
White Sox
75-62
CLE 46.2%win prob53.8% CHW
CHW 1519 · CLE 1525Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- BravesYankees8/8 - 3:05 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/8 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/8 - 4:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysPhillies8/8 - 6:05 PM EDT
- MetsPirates8/8 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RedsNationals8/8 - 6:45 PM EDT
- CubsRoyals8/8 - 7:10 PM EDT
- TwinsBrewers8/8 - 7:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRangers8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- TigersGiants8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- DodgersDiamondbacks8/8 - 8:10 PM EDT
- RaysMariners8/8 - 9:50 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
