Recent form
4-6
TEX -1.1 vs BAL -2.0 margin
TEX brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
BAL
BAL
56-60
PregameSat, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV, FOX
TEX
TEX
58-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketGlobe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
Line movement
200 snapshots
TEX spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
TEX no-vig %
57.3%
open 56.1% · +1.2
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Kyle Bradish
SP · #38
7-10
W-L
3.79
ERA
1.36
WHIP
117
K
121.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsPHIL(7-10)3.0 IP2 ER3 K
@DET-4.2 IP5 ER4 K
@BOSW(7-9)6.0 IP1 ER4 K
Home starter
Jacob deGrom
SP · #48
7-7
W-L
3.96
ERA
1.14
WHIP
135
K
113.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@HOUL(7-7)3.1 IP5 ER3 K
vsSEA-5.0 IP1 ER4 K
vsCHWL(7-6)4.2 IP5 ER6 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money+124 / -150
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesTEX leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take TEX on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
TEX vs BAL.
TEX enters on a 3-game win streak; BAL is 5-5 over its last 10.
61.0%
model · TEX win prob
Recent form
- TEX4–6-1.1
- BAL5–5-2.0
Situational
- TEX1d restB2B
- BAL1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TEX has 0 straight road games; BAL has 1.
Model angle
+3.7ppon TEX
TEX's edge is mostly line steam plus head to head. Model confidence is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
- ▼Model confidence-0.8pp
- ▲Line steam+0.5pp
Players to watch
- Jacob deGromTEX6.5strikeouts · ±2.1
Jacob deGrom · 6.5 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.4.
- Nathan EovaldiTEX6.3strikeouts · ±3.1
Nathan Eovaldi · 6.3 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.2.
- Shane BazBAL5.3strikeouts · ±3.0
Shane Baz · 5.3 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 5.2.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
TEX is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-07BAL @ TEX1–2
Line move
open -142→-150toward TEX
The market has moved 1.3pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.0%
ensemble · TEX favored
Elo Static
60.7%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.5%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.21 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TEX vs BAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 110 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob deGromTEX6.5± 2.1high
- Nathan EovaldiTEX6.3± 3.1high
- Shane BazBAL5.3± 3.0high
Hits
- Brandon NimmoTEX1.1± 1.1high
- Ezequiel DuranTEX1.0± 1.4high
- Corey SeagerTEX0.9± 1.1high
Total bases
- Brandon NimmoTEX1.8± 2.1high
- Coby MayoBAL1.6± 2.2high
- Corey SeagerTEX1.6± 1.9high
RBIs
- Ezequiel DuranTEX0.7± 1.3high
- Coby MayoBAL0.6± 1.1high
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL0.5± 0.8medium
Earned runs
- Nathan EovaldiTEX2.8± 1.8high
- Kumar RockerTEX2.6± 2.3high
- Kyle BradishBAL2.5± 1.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BAL
league avg
TEX
.709
OPS
.720
▶.718
.319
OBP
.318
.317
4.46
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.13
4.18
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.26
1.34
WHIP
1.30
▶1.28
8.0
K / 9
8.5
▶8.6
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 8BAL
Orioles
60-82
vs61.0%TEX
TEX★
Rangers
74-67
BAL 39.0%win prob61.0% TEX
TEX 1506 · BAL 1455Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- BravesYankees8/8 - 3:05 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/8 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/8 - 4:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysPhillies8/8 - 6:05 PM EDT
- MetsPirates8/8 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RedsNationals8/8 - 6:45 PM EDT
- CubsRoyals8/8 - 7:10 PM EDT
- TwinsBrewers8/8 - 7:10 PM EDT
- GuardiansWhite Sox8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- TigersGiants8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- DodgersDiamondbacks8/8 - 8:10 PM EDT
- RaysMariners8/8 - 9:50 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
