Recent form
6-4
ARI +0.6 vs LAD -2.0 margin
ARI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
LAD
LAD
69-46
PregameSat, 8:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
ARI
ARI
61-55
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketChase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
SP · #18
11-7
W-L
2.76
ERA
0.88
WHIP
121
K
133.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBOSL(11-7)8.0 IP3 ER3 K
@NYMW(11-6)6.0 IP1 ER5 K
@NYYW(10-6)9.0 IP2 ER7 K
Home starter
Brandon Pfaadt
RP · #32
6-1
W-L
3.66
ERA
1.26
WHIP
52
K
78.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSDW(6-1)6.2 IP0 ER3 K
@PIT-7.0 IP0 ER4 K
@STLW(5-1)6.0 IP2 ER1 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob56% / 44%
LeanAway · 6pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesLAD win series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ARI vs LAD.
ARI is 6-4 recently; LAD is 2-8.
44.2%
model · ARI win prob
Recent form
- ARI6–4+0.6
- LAD2–8-2.0
Situational
- ARI2d rest
- LAD3d rest
- -1.0d differential
LAD has 1 more rest day. ARI has 0 straight road games; LAD has 3.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.1 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.1.
- Justin WrobleskiLAD5.3strikeouts · ±3.0
Justin Wrobleski · 5.3 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 4.8.
- Merrill KellyARI3.9strikeouts · ±1.8
Merrill Kelly · 3.9 K · last-10 3.9 vs season 3.8.
Head-to-head · 3-0 · last 3
ARI is 3-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-10ARI @ LAD9–3
- 2026-07-11ARI @ LAD9–2
- 2026-07-12ARI @ LAD5–3
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.0%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
46.7%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.6%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.5%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.78 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ARI vs LAD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
129
projections · 101 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.5± 2.8medium
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.1± 2.4high
- Kris BubicLAD5.7± 3.6low
Hits
- James McCannARI1.5± 1.2high
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.4± 0.8high
- Shohei OhtaniLAD1.4± 1.0high
Total bases
- Shohei OhtaniLAD2.8± 3.0high
- James McCannARI2.5± 2.5high
- Geraldo PerdomoARI1.9± 2.0high
RBIs
- James McCannARI1.2± 1.3high
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.0± 0.8high
- Shohei OhtaniLAD0.8± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Merrill KellyARI2.9± 2.0high
- Kris BubicLAD2.6± 2.5low
- Roki SasakiLAD2.6± 2.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAD
league avg
ARI
.771
OPS
◀
.720
.707
.339
OBP
◀
.318
.314
5.08
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.55
3.74
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.21
1.16
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.30
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
6.9
The One modelLean
Sat, Aug 8LAD★
Dodgers
84-60
vs55.8%LAD
ARI
Diamondbacks
65-71
LAD 55.8%win prob44.2% ARI
LAD 1550 · ARI 1503Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- BravesYankees8/8 - 3:05 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/8 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/8 - 4:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysPhillies8/8 - 6:05 PM EDT
- MetsPirates8/8 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RedsNationals8/8 - 6:45 PM EDT
- CubsRoyals8/8 - 7:10 PM EDT
- TwinsBrewers8/8 - 7:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRangers8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- GuardiansWhite Sox8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- TigersGiants8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RaysMariners8/8 - 9:50 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
