Recent form
7-3
ARI +0.8 vs LAD -1.6 margin
ARI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
LAD
LAD
69-47
PregameSat, 8:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
ARI
ARI
62-55
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketChase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Line movement
200 snapshots
ARI spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
ARI no-vig %
38.7%
open 39.4% · -0.6
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
SP · #18
11-7
W-L
2.76
ERA
0.88
WHIP
121
K
133.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBOSL(11-7)8.0 IP3 ER3 K
@NYMW(11-6)6.0 IP1 ER5 K
@NYYW(10-6)9.0 IP2 ER7 K
Home starter
Brandon Pfaadt
RP · #32
6-1
W-L
3.66
ERA
1.26
WHIP
52
K
78.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSDW(6-1)6.2 IP0 ER3 K
@PIT-7.0 IP0 ER4 K
@STLW(5-1)6.0 IP2 ER1 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money-186 / +153
Model edge
Win prob54% / 46%
LeanAway · 4pp
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesARI leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
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Scouting report · pre-game
ARI vs LAD.
ARI is 7-3 recently; LAD is 2-8.
46.3%
model · ARI win prob
Recent form
- ARI7–3+0.8
- LAD2–8-1.6
Situational
- ARI1d restB2B
- LAD1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ARI has 0 straight road games; LAD has 4.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.1 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.1.
- Roki SasakiLAD5.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Roki Sasaki · 5.5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.3.
- Justin WrobleskiLAD5.3strikeouts · ±3.0
Justin Wrobleski · 5.3 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 4.8.
Head-to-head · 4-0 · last 4
ARI is 4-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-10ARI @ LAD9–3
- 2026-07-11ARI @ LAD9–2
- 2026-07-12ARI @ LAD5–3
- 2026-08-07LAD @ ARI3–4
Line move
open +143→+147toward LAD
The market has moved 0.7pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
46.3%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
47.9%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.9%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.8%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.78 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ARI vs LAD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 103 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.5± 2.8medium
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.1± 2.4high
- Kris BubicLAD5.7± 3.6low
Hits
- James McCannARI1.5± 1.2high
- Shohei OhtaniLAD1.4± 1.0high
- Geraldo PerdomoARI1.3± 1.2high
Total bases
- Shohei OhtaniLAD2.8± 3.0high
- James McCannARI2.5± 2.5high
- Geraldo PerdomoARI1.9± 2.2high
RBIs
- James McCannARI1.2± 1.3high
- Gabriel MorenoARI0.9± 0.9high
- Shohei OhtaniLAD0.8± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Merrill KellyARI2.8± 2.1high
- Roki SasakiLAD2.7± 2.3high
- Kris BubicLAD2.6± 2.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAD
league avg
ARI
.770
OPS
◀
.720
.709
.339
OBP
◀
.318
.314
5.06
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.55
3.75
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.20
1.16
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.30
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
6.9
The One modelTossup
Sat, Aug 8LAD★
Dodgers
84-61
vs53.6%LAD
ARI
Diamondbacks
66-71
LAD 53.6%win prob46.4% ARI
LAD 1545 · ARI 1507Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- BravesYankees8/8 - 3:05 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/8 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/8 - 4:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysPhillies8/8 - 6:05 PM EDT
- MetsPirates8/8 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RedsNationals8/8 - 6:45 PM EDT
- CubsRoyals8/8 - 7:10 PM EDT
- TwinsBrewers8/8 - 7:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRangers8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- GuardiansWhite Sox8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- TigersGiants8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/8 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RaysMariners8/8 - 9:50 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
