MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1COL

CHC

34-34

COL

26-42

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

31,802 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 12.5

open O/U 12.0 · +0.5

COL no-vig %

40.0%

open 40.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
39.9%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
36.5%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.5%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.7pp

best edge · COL · DraftKings

CHC

no live price

COL

★ best

+216DraftKings

edge +10.7pp · implied 29.7%

Book	CHC	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	-297	+216★	+10.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Edward CabreraCHC
4.9± 2.7low
Michael LorenzenCOL
4.1± 1.8medium

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.4high
Willi CastroCOL
1.3± 1.4high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
1.1± 1.6high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.1± 3.7high
Cole CarriggCOL
2.6± 2.7low
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.5± 3.7high

RBIs

Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 2.3low
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.4high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 3.2low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 3.0medium
Colin ReaCHC
3.3± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

COL

.726

OPS

.717

.730

.332

OBP

◀

.319

.322

4.58

Runs / G

4.50

4.56

4.22

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.63

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.54

8.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

CHC 2 · COL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2
COL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.254	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. BallesterosDH	.238	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
M. Busch1B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Bregman3B	.246	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
I. HappLF	.230	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
S. SuzukiRF	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
N. Hoerner2B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. SwansonSS	.180	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. KellyC	.283	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	2	5	2	1	4	11

Player

.254

.238

.247

.246

.230

.247

.247

.237

.180

.283

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ImanagaSP	5.0	2	0	0	2	7	90
P. MatonRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	12
C. ThielbarRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	20
J. WebbRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	12
D. PalenciaRP	0.0	2	1	1	1	0	18
Team	8.0	9	3	3	3	11	152

Player

5.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

0.0

Team

8.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. Castro2B	.266	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Karros3B	.229	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Rumfield1B	.269	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
H. GoodmanC	.249	3	0	2	0	0	1	1
E. TovarSS	.215	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
C. CarriggCF	.143	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. JohnstonRF	.307	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. FulfordC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Stevens2B	.038	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
E. Julien2B	.228	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. SullivanC	.207	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. ThompsonRF	.239	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		33	3	9	3	1	3	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LorenzenSP	5.0	2	1	1	2	7	84
B. BernardinoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	15
J. MejiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
J. CriswellRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	25
A. SenzatelaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	14
Team	9.0	5	2	2	4	11	148

Team

CHC

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.