MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4COL

CHC

34-33

COL

25-42

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

29,302 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 12.5

open O/U 11.5 · +1.0

COL no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.2%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
41.1%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.8%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.6%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.92

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

58.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

CHC

no live price

COL

no live price

Book	CHC	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	-168	+139	+0.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Edward CabreraCHC
4.9± 2.7low
Michael LorenzenCOL
4.1± 1.8medium

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.4high
Willi CastroCOL
1.3± 1.4high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
1.1± 1.6high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.1± 3.7high
Cole CarriggCOL
2.6± 2.7low
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.5± 3.7high

RBIs

Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 2.3low
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.4high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 3.2low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 3.0medium
Colin ReaCHC
3.3± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

COL

.726

OPS

.717

.730

.332

OBP

◀

.319

.322

4.58

Runs / G

4.50

4.56

4.22

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.63

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.54

8.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

CHC 3 · COL 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
COL	2	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.254	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
M. BallesterosDH	.241	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Busch1B	.247	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
A. Bregman3B	.248	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
I. HappLF	.230	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
S. SuzukiRF	.247	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
N. Hoerner2B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. AmayaC	.217	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.182	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. ShawRF	.240	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Ramirez2B	.217	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.247	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. KellyC	.285	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	8	3	1	4	6

Player

.254

.241

.247

.248

.230

.247

.247

.217

.182

.240

.217

.247

.285

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ReaSP	4.2	9	7	7	3	2	79
R. RolisonRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	20
E. RobertsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	16
H. MilnerRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	12
Team	8.0	12	7	7	6	4	127

Player

4.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

127

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.282	4	0	1	1	0	1	1
W. Castro2B	.271	5	0	3	0	0	0	0
T. Rumfield1B	.265	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
H. GoodmanC	.243	3	2	1	2	1	2	0
T. JohnstonRF	.311	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. TovarSS	.210	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
C. CarriggCF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
K. Karros3B	.232	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
E. Julien2B	.223	4	1	2	3	0	0	1
Team		34	7	12	7	2	6	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SuganoSP	5.0	6	3	3	2	3	93
S. HalvorsenRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
B. BernardinoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
A. SenzatelaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	22
J. HillRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	8	3	3	4	6	154

Team

CHC

COL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.