MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TOR

PHI

36-31

TOR

33-35

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

41,079 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
43.7%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.6%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.4%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.75

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-119

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.8%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.3pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

PHI

no live price

TOR

★ best

+148DraftKings

edge +4.3pp · implied 37.8%

Book	PHI	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-196	+148★	+4.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.4medium
Zack WheelerPHI
6.2± 2.6low

Hits

Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 0.9high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.2± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Brandon MarshPHI
2.1± 2.3high
Ernie ClementTOR
2.0± 2.3high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.9± 1.4high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.1high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 0.7high
Brandon MarshPHI
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.7± 2.9low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

TOR

.689

OPS

.717

▶

.704

.298

OBP

.319

▶

.314

4.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.05

4.01

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.09

1.29

WHIP

1.31

1.28

9.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

PHI 2 · TOR 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. SchwarberDH	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. TurnerSS	.226	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Harper1B	.263	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
B. MarshLF	.332	4	0	1	1	0	0	3
A. Bohm3B	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Stott2B	.225	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.205	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. GarciaRF	.197	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. CrawfordCF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Sosa2B	.202	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. BerroaRF	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	5	2	0	2	15

Player

.235

.226

.263

.332

.222

.225

.205

.197

.231

.202

.143

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. WheelerSP	6.0	6	1	1	0	5	96
O. KerkeringRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	22
J. AlvaradoRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	12
J. DuranRP	0.0	3	2	2	0	0	8
Team	8.0	9	3	3	0	8	138

Player

6.0

1.1

0.2

0.0

Team

8.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.282	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. LukesRF	.311	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.304	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. SanchezRF	.296	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.312	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
B. ValenzuelaC	.252	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. Okamoto3B	.232	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. GimenezSS	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. McAdoo2B	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. StrawRF	.238	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.256	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	9	2	1	0	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CeaseSP	6.0	3	1	1	1	11	93
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
M. FluhartyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
L. VarlandRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	16
Team	9.0	5	2	2	2	15	132

Team

PHI

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TOR vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TOR vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.