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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TB
LAA

LAA

22-36

5
8
TB

TB

35-19

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
18,706 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TB no-vig %

61.6%

open 61.6%

-1.0-2.0TB SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL65.6%57.6%TB NO-VIG %May 28, 5 PMMay 29, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

LAA 5 · TB 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +23pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0010100305
TB100000708

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.6pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

LAA

no live price

TB

★ best
-231DraftKings

edge +11.6pp · implied 65.6%

BookLAATBBest edge
DraftKings+173-231★+11.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 18, 26sim 83
    146
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 82
    207
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 82
    2713
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 81
    13
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 80
    272
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 80
    14
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, May 29·Final/SeriesTB leads series 1-0/VegasTB -173

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Los Angeles Angels, 8–5.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Zach Neto

Zach Neto

SS

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz

DH

2.000OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA22-36
5
8
TB35-19
LAA22-36·TB35-19
LAA

LAA

22-36

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
2-44221012
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-33100020
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
2-55122001
SPRINT26.632
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44001001
W. MecklerW. Meckler★OF
0-44001001
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
2-44020001
SPRINT28.278
N. MadrigalN. Madrigal★3B
2-44020001
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-33000010
J. SiriJ. Siri★LF
2-44120001
Team10-35355105048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. UrenaW. Urena★SP
6.0511351
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
0.1344102
B. SuterB. SuterRP
1.2231020
Team8.01086473
TB

TB

35-19

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-55223202
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
2-44121112
SPRINT25.29
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-44120010
SPRINT25.716
R. ViladeR. Vilade★RF
0-44000000
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44110000
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
1-22010001
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
1-33112012
SPRINT26.838
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
0-33001000
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-33100010
O. DunnO. Dunn3B
1-11111000
Team10-33338108347
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. MartinezN. Martinez★SP
7.0822050
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.0000010
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0100220
Team9.01055480

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • W. Urena
    92 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      32%·97.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      28%·98.1 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      22%·91.0 mph·55% whiff
    • ST
      18%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
  • B. Suter
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      32%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      28%·75.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      28%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·89.1 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Zeferjahn
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      37%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      32%·96.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      26%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·90.0 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • N. Martinez
    88 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      48%·92.1 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      19%·78.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      17%·88.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      7%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·86.7 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    31 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      48%·97.4 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      45%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
  • H. Bigge
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      77%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·89.1 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      55%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·77.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.2 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

10

5

Runs

8

2

Errors

1

Current series

TB leads series 1-0

May 29LAALAA5@TBTB8today
May 30LAALAA@TBTBupcoming
May 31LAALAA@TBTBupcoming

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

May 29LAALAA5@TBTB8today
May 30LAALAA@TBTBupcoming
May 31LAALAA@TBTBupcoming
Jun 13TBTB@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 14TBTB@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 14TBTB@LAALAAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+14341%
TBTB-17363%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 33pp · Bottom 7th Inning

LAALAA
Z. Neto

Z. Neto

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 2 R · 1.100 OPS

W. Urena

W. Urena

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

TBTB
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.000 OPS

N. Martinez

N. Martinez

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 8 H

How it ended

TB beat LAA 8-5. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 7th inning (33pp).

Win probability

TB vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+8pp→ 32% WP

Grissom · singled to left, Neto scored.

LAATop 5th Inning · 1-1
+18pp→ 46% WP

Siri · doubled to center.

TBBottom 7th Inning · 2-3
+33pp→ 84% WP

Díaz homered to left center (400 feet), Mullins scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0010100305
TB10000070—8

Period scoring

LAA won 3 · TB won 2

0
1

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Grissom 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Neto 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
7

Inn 7

Palacios 2

3
0

Inn 8

Grissom 1

0

Inn 9

LAA
TB

Play-by-play · 559 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  2. T9

    Grissom popped out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

    +8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  7. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Vaughn Grissom

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  8. T9

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  9. T9

    Trout walked, Siri to second, O'Hoppe to third.

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

    −5pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  17. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Mike Trout

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  18. T9

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  19. T9

    Neto struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

    +5pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  24. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Zach Neto

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  25. T9

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  26. T9

    Siri singled to right, O'Hoppe to second.

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

    −5pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 5·TB 8

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

TB

Home

5

Runs

8

10

Hits

10

2

Errors

1

13

TB

22

0

HR

3

4

BB

4

8

K

7

14

LOB

16

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8·LAA +143/TB -173

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.47

CLV pp

Open price

-181

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

61.6%

Close no-vig

62.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TB vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Chandler SimpsonTB
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.4± 2.3high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.6high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    0.8± 1.9high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

78.1%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    72.5%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    73.5%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    73.9%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278