MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TB

BAL

21-29

33-15

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

11,846 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TB no-vig %

53.1%

open 51.7% · +1.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

72.7%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
70.7%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
68.5%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
70.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.50

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-118

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.3pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

BAL

no live price

★ best

-117DraftKings

edge +22.3pp · implied 51.5%

Book	BAL	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	-103	-117★	+22.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.1low
Shane BazBAL
5.2± 2.3low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.3high
Taylor WardBAL
1.2± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.0high
Yandy DiazTB
2.1± 1.7high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.6high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high
Yandy DiazTB
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Shane BazBAL
2.7± 2.3low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

.727

OPS

.715

.722

.323

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.57

4.55

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.91

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.22

7.8

K / 9

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

BAL 3 · TB 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +21pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
TB	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. WardLF	.257	3	1	0	0	0	2	1
G. HendersonSS	.220	5	0	3	0	0	0	0
A. RutschmanC	.266	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
P. Alonso1B	.228	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
T. O'NeillRF	.159	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. BasalloC	.277	4	1	2	1	1	0	2
J. Jackson2B	.253	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
W. Wilson3B	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Alexander3B	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CowserRF	.186	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Holliday2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		36	3	9	3	2	3	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.257

.220

.266

.228

.159

.277

.253

.273

.235

.186

.000

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. BazSP	6.0	2	1	1	3	6	94
T. WellsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17
A. NunezRP	0.2	3	4	4	1	0	26
R. GarciaRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	6
Team	8.0	6	5	5	4	6	143

Player

6.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

143

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. SimpsonLF	.288	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.268	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.263	3	1	1	2	0	1	1
R. ViladeRF	.306	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
R. Palacios2B	.268	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. DeLucaRF	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.181	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. FeducciaC	.278	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
T. WallsSS	.216	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
O. Dunn3B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	5	6	4	1	4	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. MatzSP	4.0	3	1	1	2	5	67
J. ScholtensRP	4.0	6	2	2	1	4	60
I. SeymourRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	9	3	3	3	9	136

Team

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TB vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.