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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6LAD
LAD

LAD

15-4

7
1
COL

COL

7-13

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
28,783 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

COL no-vig %

26.7%

open 26.7%

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL30.7%22.7%COL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 7 · COL 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +23pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD1121200007
COL0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 19, 26sim 97
    193
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 91
    196
    27(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 88
    1912
    27(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 82
    253
    27(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 82
    159
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 80
    158
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Apr 17·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasLAD -328

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Colorado Rockies and beat them, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Max Muncy

Max Muncy

3B

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Mickey Moniak

Mickey Moniak

LF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD15-4
7
1
COL7-13
LAD15-4·COL7-13
LAD

LAD

15-4

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-55120001
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-55110002
W. SmithW. Smith★C
2-44122001
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-44120010
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-55000003
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
3-44233201
SPRINT27.354
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-22111010
SPRINT28.175
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-33010010
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
1-33011000
S. EspinalS. Espinal3B
0-11000000
Team13-36367137238
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
7.0211270
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
2.0000130
Team9.02113100
COL

COL

7-13

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-33000010
SPRINT26.225
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
1-33110011
SPRINT2872
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-44000002
SPRINT24.85
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-44001002
SPRINT26.326
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT27.867
B. SullivanB. Sullivan★C
0-33000001
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
0-33000001
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-22000011
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-33000001
Team2-28281210310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
4.0955231
Z. AgnosZ. AgnosRP
4.0322141
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
1.0100010
Team9.01377382

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

COL

  • B. Bernardino
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      43%·77.3 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      43%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·86.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

2

7

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 18LADLAD7@COLCOL1today
Apr 19LADLAD3@COLCOL4
Apr 19LADLAD6@COLCOL9
Apr 21LADLAD12@COLCOL3

Season series

LAD lead series 1-0

Apr 18LADLAD7@COLCOL1today
Apr 19LADLAD3@COLCOL4
Apr 19LADLAD6@COLCOL9
Apr 21LADLAD12@COLCOL3
May 26COLCOL3@LADLAD5
May 27COLCOL6@LADLAD15
May 28COLCOL1@LADLAD4
Jul 7COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Jul 8COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Jul 9COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 18LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming
Aug 19LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming
Aug 20LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-32877%
COLCOL+25828%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 7pp · Top 3rd Inning

LADLAD
M. Muncy

M. Muncy

3B

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

COLCOL
M. Moniak

M. Moniak

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

Z. Agnos

Z. Agnos

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat COL 7-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

COL vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+7pp→ 82% WP

Muncy · homered to center (452 feet).

LADTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+7pp→ 91% WP

Muncy · doubled to right, Smith scored, Freeman to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD1121200007
COL0001000001

Period scoring

LAD won 4 · COL won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Smith 1

1
0

Inn 2

Muncy 1

2
0

Inn 3

Muncy 1

1
1

Inn 4

Smith 1

Johnston 1

2
0

Inn 5

Muncy 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

LAD
COL

Play-by-play · 547 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 7·COL 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  3. B9

    Johnston flied out to center.

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  5. B9

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Troy Johnston

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  6. B9

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  7. B9

    Rumfield struck out looking.

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  13. B9

    Jack Dreyer pitches to TJ Rumfield

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  14. B9

    ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  15. B9

    Moniak grounded into fielder's choice to first, Julien out at second.

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

    −0.5pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  18. B9

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Mickey Moniak

    · ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  19. B9

    ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  20. B9

    Julien walked.

    ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

    +0.5pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  28. B9

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Edouard Julien

    ·

    LAD 7·COL 1

  29. B9

    Espinal at third base.

    LAD 7·COL 1

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 7·COL 1

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

COL

Home

7

Runs

1

13

Hits

2

0

Errors

0

23

TB

4

2

HR

0

3

BB

3

8

K

10

15

LOB

9

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 9.5·LAD -328/COL +258

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Brett SullivanCOL · C
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

COL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    27.3%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    25.7%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    27.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.