• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+9LAD
LAD

LAD

16-6

12
3
COL

COL

9-14

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
27,261 attended

Line movement

13 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 12.0

open O/U 12.0

COL no-vig %

36.4%

open 36.4%

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 12.5O/U 11.5TOTAL40.4%32.4%COL NO-VIG %MODEL 38.2%May 2, 9 AMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 12 · COL 3 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +21pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD02210112312
COL1000000113

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    196
    27(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 90
    158
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 88
    1511
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 88
    197
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 85
    193
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 85
    159
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Apr 20·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasLAD -199

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Colorado Rockies and beat them, 12–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 12.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Max Muncy

Max Muncy

3B

3.500OPS

4-4

AB-H

4

R

2

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Jordan Beck

Jordan Beck

LF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
LAD16-6
12
3
COL9-14
LAD16-6·COL9-14
LAD

LAD

16-6

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44210021
SPRINT2744
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-55111011
SPRINT27.765
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-55000001
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-55011001
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-55110000
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
4-44442210
SPRINT27.354
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
3-33132100
SPRINT26.123
S. EspinalS. Espinal★3B
2-44120000
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
2-55223202
SPRINT27.867
RR. WardLF
0-11000001
Team15-414112159547
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. WrobleskiJ. Wrobleski★SP
7.0811030
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.0211021
J. EderJ. EderRP
1.0111100
Team9.01133151
COL

COL

9-14

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. BeckJ. Beck★LF
3-44131000
SPRINT28.175
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
1-55011000
SPRINT28.483
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-55000001
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
0-00000000
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-44000002
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-44010001
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
2-44020001
SPRINT27.969
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
1-33110010
SPRINT27.251
B. SullivanB. Sullivan★C
2-44020000
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield1B
1-44111100
SPRINT24.85
Team11-37373113115
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. QuintanaJ. Quintana★SP
5.0864112
T. GordonT. GordonRP
4.0766363
Team9.0151210475

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

11

12

Runs

3

0

Errors

3

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 18LADLAD7@COLCOL1
Apr 19LADLAD3@COLCOL4
Apr 19LADLAD6@COLCOL9
Apr 21LADLAD12@COLCOL3today

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 18LADLAD7@COLCOL1
Apr 19LADLAD3@COLCOL4
Apr 19LADLAD6@COLCOL9
Apr 21LADLAD12@COLCOL3today
May 26COLCOL3@LADLAD5
May 27COLCOL6@LADLAD15
May 28COLCOL1@LADLAD4
Jul 7COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Jul 8COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Jul 9COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 18LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming
Aug 19LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming
Aug 20LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

12.0

High-scoring · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-19967%
COLCOL+16338%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

12.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 1st Inning

LADLAD
M. Muncy

M. Muncy

3B

Batter of the game2-HR game

4-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.500 OPS

J. Wrobleski

J. Wrobleski

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 8 H

COLCOL
J. Beck

J. Beck

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

T. Gordon

T. Gordon

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 6 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAD beat COL 12-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

COL vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 51% WP

Doyle · doubled to left, Beck scored.

LADTop 2nd Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 67% WP

Muncy · homered to right center (419 feet).

LADTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+7pp→ 80% WP

Ohtani · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD02210112312
COL1000000113

Period scoring

LAD won 7 · COL won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Doyle 1

2
0

Inn 2

Muncy 1

2
0

Inn 3

Smith 1

1
0

Inn 4

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Call 1

1
0

Inn 7

Rojas 1

2
1

Inn 8

Rushing 1

Rumfield 1

3
1

Inn 9

Rushing 2

Beck 1

LAD
COL

Play-by-play · 625 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 12·COL 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  3. B9

    Goodman fouled out to right.

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  9. B9

    Jake Eder pitches to Hunter Goodman

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  10. B9

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  11. B9

    Doyle lined out to right.

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  18. B9

    Jake Eder pitches to Brenton Doyle

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  19. B9

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  20. B9

    Beck hit sacrifice fly to right, Karros scored.

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 2

  26. B9

    Jake Eder pitches to Jordan Beck

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 3

  27. B9

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 2

  28. B9

    Sullivan singled to center, Karros to third.

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 12·COL 2

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

COL

Home

12

Runs

3

15

Hits

11

0

Errors

3

30

TB

17

5

HR

1

4

BB

1

7

K

5

22

LOB

18

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 12·LAD -199/COL +163

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-199

Close price

-199

Open no-vig

63.6%

Close no-vig

63.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Jordan BeckCOL · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

COL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    29.5%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    26.6%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    29.2%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.