Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — May 2, 2026

FINAL+8ATL

ATL

24-10

COL

14-20

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

38,569 attended

Line movement

93 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

COL no-vig %

34.3%

open 34.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.5%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
33.6%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
31.7%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
34.9%
P(COL win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

1.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

COL vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.0low
Bryce ElderATL
4.9± 2.9medium
Grant HolmesATL
4.4± 2.5medium

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.2± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.2± 0.7high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

TJ RumfieldCOL
2.5± 2.2high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
1.9± 3.8high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

TJ RumfieldCOL
0.9± 1.0high
Willi CastroCOL
0.8± 2.2high
Cole CarriggCOL
0.7± 2.0low

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 2.6low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.9± 2.8medium
Bryce ElderATL
2.8± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

COL

.734

OPS

.719

.733

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.91

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.51

3.40

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.47

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.52

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 9 · COL 1 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	2	1	0	3	2	0	0	0	1	9
COL	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.252	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. BaldwinC	.312	4	1	3	4	1	1	1
O. Albies2B	.326	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
M. Olson1B	.293	5	1	1	1	1	0	0
M. Harris IICF	.321	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. DubonSS	.274	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Riley3B	.205	3	2	1	2	1	1	2
M. YastrzemskiLF	.196	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MateoSS	.270	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
E. WhiteRF	.196	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	9	12	9	3	3	8

Player

.252

.312

.326

.293

.321

.274

.205

.196

.270

.196

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SaleSP	7.0	3	1	1	3	11	102
D. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
H. StrattonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	4	1	1	3	13	128

Player

C. SaleSP

7.0

102

D. LeeRP

1.0

H. StrattonRP

1.0

Team

9.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BeckLF	.167	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
B. DoyleCF	.213	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Rumfield1B	.254	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. GoodmanC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
W. Castro2B	.235	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. SullivanC	.286	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Karros3B	.213	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
E. TovarSS	.193	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. JohnstonRF	.311	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	1	4	1	0	3	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BernardinoRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	1	23
C. DollanderSP	5.1	8	6	6	3	3	97
T. GordonRP	3.0	1	1	1	0	4	41
Team	9.0	12	9	9	3	8	161

Team

ATL

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.