Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at COL?

The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 18, 2026

FINAL+1COL

LAD

15-5

COL

8-13

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

47,925 attended

Line movement

21 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.5

COL no-vig %

28.7%

open 28.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

32.7%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
26.6%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
27.3%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
27.9%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-293

Close price

-293

Open no-vig

71.3%

Close no-vig

71.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at COL?: The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

COL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.7± 3.9low
Roki SasakiLAD
5.5± 3.1low

Hits

Tommy EdmanLAD
1.4± 1.8low
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.2± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

TJ RumfieldCOL
2.5± 2.2high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.1high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
1.9± 3.8high

RBIs

TJ RumfieldCOL
0.9± 1.0high
Willi CastroCOL
0.8± 2.2high
Cole CarriggCOL
0.7± 2.0low

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 2.6low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.9± 2.8medium
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

COL

.783

OPS

◀

.719

.733

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.323

5.24

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.51

3.42

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.47

1.10

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.52

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

LAD 3 · COL 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +23pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
COL	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.264	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. TuckerRF	.260	5	1	3	2	1	0	0
A. PagesCF	.389	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
F. Freeman1B	.296	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
T. HernándezLF	.273	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Muncy3B	.239	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. RushingC	.476	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. Freeland2B	.196	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. RojasSS	.323	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. CallLF	.417	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. KimSS	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. SmithC	.311	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Espinal3B	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	8	3	2	2	8

Player

.264

.260

.389

.296

.273

.239

.476

.196

.323

.417

.273

.311

.143

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. SheehanSP	5.0	4	2	2	2	4	77
W. KleinRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	23
A. VesiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
E. HenriquezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	8.0	7	4	4	2	7	127

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

127

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. Julien2B	.224	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. MoniakLF	.260	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.250	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.257	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. TovarSS	.238	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. JohnstonRF	.305	4	1	3	2	0	0	1
B. DoyleCF	.203	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.185	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
J. BeckLF	.122	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	4	7	4	0	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. FeltnerSP	5.2	5	3	2	1	5	87
B. BernardinoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	14
J. HillRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	22
V. VodnikRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	15
Team	9.0	8	3	2	2	8	138

Team

LAD

COL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

COL vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.