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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3COL
PHI

PHI

5-4

1
4
COL

COL

3-6

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
29,757 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

COL no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 11.5O/U 10.5TOTAL45.7%37.7%COL NO-VIG %MODEL 38.3%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

PHI 1 · COL 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0100000001
COL300010004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sun, Apr 5·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -156

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies held off Philadelphia Phillies, 4–1.

COL +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 11.0 by 6.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Adolis Garcia

Adolis Garcia

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Mickey Moniak

Mickey Moniak

LF

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI5-4
1
4
COL3-6
PHI5-4·COL3-6
PHI

PHI

5-4

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-33000011
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000002
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.632
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-44000002
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
2-44121100
SPRINT26.735
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.175
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
0-44000001
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT29.798
Team6-34341611110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WalkerT. Walker★SP
5.0744243
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
1.0000010
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0000010
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
1.0000020
Team8.0744283
COL

COL

3-6

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-44000001
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-33000011
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
2-44222201
SPRINT2872
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
2-44120002
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
1-44112100
SPRINT24.85
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-22010011
SPRINT27.969
J. BeckJ. Beck★LF
0-33000001
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
1-22010000
SPRINT29.698
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-22000001
B. DoyleB. DoyleCF
0-11000000
K. KarrosK. Karros3B
0-11000000
Team7-3030474328
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
6.0411151
J. HillJ. HillRP
1.0000000
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
1.0000020
V. VodnikV. VodnikRP
1.0200030
Team9.06111101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • T. Walker
    87 pitches·28% CSW
    • FS
      26%·88.0 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      20%·81.9 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      17%·86.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      16%·75.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Mayza
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      54%·93.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      31%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Backhus
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      58%·76.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      33%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·75.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Banks
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.0 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      38%·80.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      13%·91.8 mph·0% whiff

COL

  • T. Sugano
    78 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      29%·92.5 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      27%·84.6 mph·23% whiff
    • FC
      17%·88.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      15%·88.0 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      3%·82.6 mph·— whiff
  • V. Vodnik
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      55%·98.3 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      18%·93.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·92.6 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      29%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Hill
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      40%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·98.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

1

Runs

4

1

Errors

1

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Apr 3PHIPHI10@COLCOL1
Apr 5PHIPHI2@COLCOL1
Apr 5PHIPHI1@COLCOL4today

Season series

PHI leads series 2-1

Apr 3PHIPHI10@COLCOL1
Apr 5PHIPHI2@COLCOL1
Apr 5PHIPHI1@COLCOL4today
May 8COLCOL9@PHIPHI7
May 9COLCOL3@PHIPHI9
May 10COLCOL0@PHIPHI6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

11.0

High-scoring · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI-15661%
COLCOL+12944%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

11.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 1st Inning

PHIPHI
A. Garcia

A. Garcia

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Walker

T. Walker

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

COLCOL
M. Moniak

M. Moniak

LF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

COL beat PHI 4-1.

Win probability

COL vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+17pp→ 78% WP

Rumfield · homered to right (387 feet), Goodman scored.

PHITop 2nd Inning · 1-3
+8pp→ 29% WP

Garc · ía homered to right center (405 feet).

COLBottom 5th Inning · 1-4
+9pp→ 86% WP

Moniak · homered to right center (437 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0100000001
COL30001000—4

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · COL won 2

0
3

Inn 1

Rumfield 2

1
0

Inn 2

Garc 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Moniak 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PHI
COL

Play-by-play · 493 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  2. T9

    Marchán struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  7. T9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Rafael Marchan

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  8. T9

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  9. T9

    Marsh struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

    +4pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  14. T9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Brandon Marsh

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  15. T9

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  16. T9

    García singled to right, Bohm to second.

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

    −4pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  21. T9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Adolis Garcia

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  22. T9

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  23. T9

    Stott struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

    +4pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PHI 1·COL 4

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

COL

Home

1

Runs

4

6

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

11

TB

17

1

HR

3

1

BB

2

10

K

8

13

LOB

7

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 11·PHI -156/COL +129

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Jordan BeckCOL · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    222
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 90
    2210
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 89
    251
    27(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 87
    253
    27(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 87
    181
    27(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 84
    1310
    27(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

COL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    6.0± 2.4low

Hits

  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.6± 1.4high
  • Trea TurnerPHI
    1.6± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Bryson StottPHI
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 3.1low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    32.1%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    36.6%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    31.7%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.