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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3COL
LAD

LAD

15-6

6
9
COL

COL

9-13

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
42,677 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 12.0

open O/U 12.0

COL no-vig %

35.5%

open 35.5%

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 12.5O/U 11.5TOTAL39.5%31.5%COL NO-VIG %MODEL 38.1%May 2, 9 AMMay 29, 10 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

LAD 6 · COL 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +22pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0021010026
COL000120339

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Apr 19·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasLAD -207

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 9–6.

COL +1.5 cashed (LAD lost outright). Total cleared the 12.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Max Muncy

Max Muncy

3B

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Kyle Karros

Kyle Karros

3B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD15-6
6
9
COL9-13
LAD15-6·COL9-13
LAD

LAD

15-6

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-55121002
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-55010001
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-55111001
SPRINT2744
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
3-55030000
SPRINT27.354
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44110011
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-33110011
RR. Ward★LF
2-55021000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
2-44120000
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
2-44122001
SPRINT26.941
D. RushingD. RushingC
0-11001000
Team15-41416156027
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SasakiR. Sasaki★SP
4.2733221
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.1000000
W. KleinW. KleinRP
1.0100010
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0000010
K. HurtK. HurtRP
1.0000010
Team8.01599352
COL

COL

9-13

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
3-55133000
SPRINT26.225
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
2-55223100
SPRINT2872
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
1-44110002
SPRINT27.148
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
1-44011011
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
1-33011000
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
2-33020010
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-44110001
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
2-33221110
SPRINT27.251
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
1-33110000
E. TovarE. TovarSS
0-11000001
B. DoyleB. DoyleCF
1-11110000
Team15-36369159235
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
5.0733130
A. SenzatelaA. SenzatelaRP
2.0311020
J. HergetJ. HergetRP
1.0200010
V. VodnikV. VodnikRP
1.0322110
Team9.01566270

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • R. Sasaki
    78 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      55%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FO
      42%·84.4 mph·47% whiff
    • SL
      3%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • W. Klein
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      57%·97.4 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      24%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • ST
      57%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.1 mph·— whiff
  • E. Diaz
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      62%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Dreyer
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      56%·91.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      44%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Hurt
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      88%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Vesia
    5 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      60%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·83.1 mph·0% whiff

COL

  • M. Lorenzen
    88 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      22%·84.7 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.4 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      18%·91.1 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      15%·83.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·82.9 mph·25% whiff
  • V. Vodnik
    34 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      41%·98.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      24%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·89.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      12%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Senzatela
    31 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      29%·97.1 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      26%·92.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      16%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.5 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Herget
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      35%·85.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      30%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·84.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

15

6

Runs

9

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 18LADLAD7@COLCOL1
Apr 19LADLAD3@COLCOL4
Apr 19LADLAD6@COLCOL9today
Apr 21LADLAD12@COLCOL3

Season series

COL leads series 2-1

Apr 18LADLAD7@COLCOL1
Apr 19LADLAD3@COLCOL4
Apr 19LADLAD6@COLCOL9today
Apr 21LADLAD12@COLCOL3
May 26COLCOL3@LADLAD5
May 27COLCOL6@LADLAD15
May 28COLCOL1@LADLAD4
Jul 7COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Jul 8COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Jul 9COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 18LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming
Aug 19LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming
Aug 20LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

12.0

High-scoring · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-20767%
COLCOL+16937%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 7th Inning

LADLAD
M. Muncy

M. Muncy

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1.200 OPS

R. Sasaki

R. Sasaki

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

COLCOL
K. Karros

K. Karros

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

COL beat LAD 9-6. Moniak's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 5th Inning · 3-1
+15pp→ 79% WP

Ohtani · struck out swinging.

LADTop 6th Inning · 4-3
+15pp→ 71% WP

Freeland · singled to right, Call scored, Kim to third.

COLBottom 7th Inning · 4-5
+27pp→ 74% WP

Moniak · homered to right center (428 feet), Julien scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0021010026
COL00012033—9

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

COL

Home

6

Runs

9

15

Hits

15

0

Errors

0

18

TB

25

0

HR

2

2

BB

3

7

K

5

23

LOB

20

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 12·LAD -207/COL +169

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

12.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

COL vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · COL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Freeland 1

1
1

Inn 4

Ward 1

Rumfield 1

0
2

Inn 5

Karros 1

1
0

Inn 6

Freeland 1

0
3

Inn 7

Moniak 2

0
3

Inn 8

Julien 2

2

Inn 9

Smith 1

LAD
COL

Play-by-play · 629 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

  2. T9

    Ward lined out to right.

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

  8. T9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Ryan Ward

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

  9. T9

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

  10. T9

    Rushing grounded out to second, Smith scored, Pages to second, Muncy to third.

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

    +4pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

  17. T9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Dalton Rushing

    · ·

    LAD 6·COL 9

  18. T9

    Rushing hit for Call

    ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

  19. T9

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

  20. T9

    Pages walked, Muncy to second, Smith to third.

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

    −5pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

  27. T9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Andy Pages

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

  28. T9

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

  29. T9

    Muncy reached on infield single to third, Smith to second.

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

    −2pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 5·COL 9

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-207

Close price

-207

Open no-vig

64.5%

Close no-vig

64.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

COL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    28.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    25.2%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    27.7%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 21, 26sim 96
    1912
    27(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 91
    197
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 89
    193
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 86
    158
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 84
    1511
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 83
    253
    27(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872