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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1WSH
BAL

BAL

20-25

2
3
WSH

WSH

22-23

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
38,912 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

WSH no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

+2.0-0.5WSH SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 8.5TOTAL47.7%39.7%WSH NO-VIG %May 14, 4 PMMay 15, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

BAL 2 · WSH 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0000000022
WSH000102003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.6pp

best edge · BAL · DraftKings

BAL

★ best
+156DraftKings

edge +10.6pp · implied 36.7%

WSH

no live price

BookBALWSHBest edge
DraftKings+156★-206+10.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -143

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off Baltimore Orioles, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Samuel Basallo

Samuel Basallo

C

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile

LF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL20-25
2
3
WSH22-23
BAL20-25·WSH22-23
BAL

BAL

20-25

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
2-55021001
SPRINT28.175
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44010010
SPRINT27.457
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-55000003
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000001
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-33110012
SPRINT25.310
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-33100011
SPRINT27.662
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-11000010
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33010002
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-33011000
SPRINT26.530
B. AlexanderB. Alexander3B
0-11000000
Team6-32322620510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
7.0633341
J. WalkerJ. WalkerRP
1.0000010
Team8.0633351
WSH

WSH

22-23

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-44000001
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-33110010
SPRINT26.838
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT28.483
D. LileD. Lile★LF
3-44132100
SPRINT29.395
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-33001001
SPRINT2872
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
0-11000020
D. MillasD. Millas★C
0-33000001
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-33000000
Team6-2929363135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. LittellZ. Littell★SP
5.0200230
A. AlvarezA. AlvarezRP
3.0322150
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
0.2000110
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
0.1100110
Team9.06225100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • S. Baz
    107 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      34%·85.5 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      19%·88.9 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Walker
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • SL
      67%·83.6 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      33%·92.5 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • Z. Littell
    87 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      43%·92.2 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      16%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Alvarez
    48 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      40%·84.8 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      25%·83.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      19%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • ST
      64%·81.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      36%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Varland
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      56%·94.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      44%·86.9 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

May 15BALBAL2@WSHWSH3today
May 16BALBAL3@WSHWSH13
May 17BALBAL7@WSHWSH3

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

May 15BALBAL2@WSHWSH3today
May 16BALBAL3@WSHWSH13
May 17BALBAL7@WSHWSH3
Jun 26WSHWSH@BALBALupcoming
Jun 27WSHWSH@BALBALupcoming
Jun 28WSHWSH@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL-14359%
WSHWSH+11946%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 25pp · Top 9th Inning

BALBAL
S. Basallo

S. Basallo

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

WSHWSH
D. Lile

D. Lile

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

Z. Littell

Z. Littell

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

WSH beat BAL 3-2. Rutschman's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Win probability

WSH vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 6th Inning · 0-3
+16pp→ 92% WP

Lile · homered to right center (379 feet), Mead scored.

BALTop 9th Inning · 0-3
+11pp→ 24% WP

Taveras · walked, O'Neill to second, Basallo to third.

WSHTop 9th Inning · 2-3
+25pp→ 100% WP

Rutschman · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0000000022
WSH00010200—3

Period scoring

BAL won 0 · WSH won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

House 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Lile 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Jackson 1

BAL
WSH

Play-by-play · 531 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  2. T9

    Rutschman struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

    +25pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  7. T9

    Richard Lovelady pitches to Adley Rutschman

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  8. T9

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  9. T9BB

    Drew Millas challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Taylor Ward walks. Gunnar Henderson to 2nd.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

    −10pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  15. T9

    Richard Lovelady pitches to Taylor Ward

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  16. T9

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  17. T9

    Henderson singled to center, O'Neill scored, Taveras to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

    −8pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 1·WSH 3

  20. T9

    Richard Lovelady pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    · ·

    BAL 2·WSH 3

  21. T9

    Lovelady relieved Varland

    ·

    BAL 1·WSH 3

  22. T9

    · ·

    BAL 1·WSH 3

  23. T9

    Jackson hit sacrifice fly to right, Basallo scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 1·WSH 3

    +7pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 1·WSH 3

  25. T9

    Gus Varland pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    · ·

    BAL 1·WSH 3

  26. T9

    · ·

    BAL 0·WSH 3

  27. T9

    Mayo struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 0·WSH 3

    +10pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 0·WSH 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 0·WSH 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 0·WSH 3

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

2

Runs

3

6

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

8

TB

10

0

HR

1

5

BB

3

10

K

5

15

LOB

12

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 9.5·BAL -143/WSH +119

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 15, 26sim 96
    142
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 95
    62
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 95
    144
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 93
    142
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 93
    92
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 93
    64
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

WSH vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • James WoodWSH
    2.6± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.9± 1.2high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    53.9%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.2%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.