
LAA
15-24

TOR
17-21
Line movement
200 snapshots
TOR spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 8.0 · -0.5
TOR no-vig %
58.3%
open 59.3% · -1.0
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
TOR wins
LAA 0 · TOR 2 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked TOR +14pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-163
Close price
-163
Open no-vig
59.3%
Close no-vig
59.3%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
121
projections · 60 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
64.8%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
64.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.1%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.3%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.93 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Recap · MLB
oronto Blue Jays held off Los Angeles Angels, 2–0.
TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LAA · top performer

Vaughn Grissom
2B
1-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
TOR · top performer

Yohendrick Pinango
LF
1-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
MLB · Box score
LAA
0
15-24
TOR
2
17-21
LAA
15-24
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
Z. Neto★SS | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M. Trout★CF | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
N. Schanuel★1B | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
J. Soler★RF | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Y. Moncada★3B | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
J. Adell★RF | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
J. Lowe★LF | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
S. Rivero★C | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A. Frazier★2B | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
V. Grissom2B | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 6-32 | 32 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
R. Detmers★SP | 3.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
J. FerminRP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
B. SuterRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
K. YatesRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
A. ManoahSP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 8.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
TOR
17-21
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
G. Springer★DH | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
M. Straw★RF | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
V. Guerrero Jr.★1B | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
K. Okamoto★3B | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
D. Varsho★CF | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
E. Clement★2B | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
D. Schneider★LF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
A. Gimenez★SS | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
B. Valenzuela★C | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Y. PinangoLF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J. SanchezLF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 3-26 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
D. Cease★SP | 7.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
J. HoffmanRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
L. VarlandRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
Hits
3
0
Runs
2
1
Errors
1
Current series
TOR leads series 1-0
Season series
TOR leads series 3-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TOR -1.5
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
7· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.5 since open
Total
7.5
-0.5 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 3rd Inning
V. Grissom
2BBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS
R. Detmers
SPStarting pitcher
3.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 6 BB
Y. Pinango
LFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS
D. Cease
SPStarting pitcherGem
7.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 5 H
How it ended
TOR beat LAA 2-0.
Win probability
TOR vs LAA
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactOkamoto · singled to center, Springer scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.
Trout · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Neto out at second.
Grissom · doubled to left.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 2 |
Period scoring
LAA won 0 · TOR won 1
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Okamoto 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 539 plays
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Moncada flied out to left.
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
+1pp
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Louis Varland pitches to Yoan Moncada
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Soler grounded out to shortstop.
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
+3pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Louis Varland pitches to Jorge Soler
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Schanuel grounded out to pitcher.
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
+4pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Louis Varland pitches to Nolan Schanuel
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Varland relieved Hoffman
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Sánchez in right field.
LAA 0·TOR 2
Pinango in left field.
LAA 0·TOR 2
Top of the 9th inning
LAA 0·TOR 2
End of the 8th inning
LAA 0·TOR 2
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Sánchez popped out to second.
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
−0.5pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
LAA 0·TOR 2
Team stats
LAA
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
0
Runs
2
6
Hits
3
1
Errors
1
8
TB
3
0
HR
0
0
BB
6
11
K
9
9
LOB
13
Betting line
TOR -1.5·O/U 7.5·LAA +135/TOR -163