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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TOR
LAA

LAA

15-24

0
2
TOR

TOR

17-21

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
41,923 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

TOR no-vig %

58.3%

open 59.3% · -1.0

+0.5-2.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL63.3%54.3%TOR NO-VIG %May 7, 4 PMMay 8, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

LAA 0 · TOR 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000000000
TOR002000002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 59-30
59%Last 30 · 247-172
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-163

Close price

-163

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TOR vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Dylan CeaseTOR
    8.0± 3.9low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.7± 3.3low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.3± 3.1low

Hits

  • Nolan SchanuelLAA
    1.2± 0.7high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Yohendrick PinangoTOR
    1.1± 1.6low

Total bases

  • Kazuma OkamotoTOR
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    2.1± 1.7high
  • Jorge SolerLAA
    1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Kazuma OkamotoTOR
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Jorge SolerLAA
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Jo AdellLAA
    0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerTOR
    3.0± 2.6low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    2.0± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.8%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    64.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.1%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.3%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

MLB·Fri, May 8·Final/SeriesTOR leads series 1-0/VegasTOR -163

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Los Angeles Angels, 2–0.

TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Vaughn Grissom

Vaughn Grissom

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Yohendrick Pinango

Yohendrick Pinango

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

Box score · Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box score

LAA

0

15-24

Final

TOR

2

17-21

LAA

LAA

15-24

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS1-44010000
M. TroutM. Trout★CF1-44010002
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B1-44010002
J. SolerJ. Soler★RF0-44000002
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B0-44000001
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF2-33020001
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF0-33000002
S. RiveroS. Rivero★C0-22000000
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B0-33000001
V. GrissomV. Grissom2B1-11010000
Team6-32320600011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. DetmersR. Detmers★SP3.2222630
J. FerminJ. FerminRP1.1000020
B. SuterB. SuterRP1.0000020
K. YatesK. YatesRP1.0100010
A. ManoahA. ManoahSP1.0000010
Team8.0322690
TOR

TOR

17-21

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH1-33110001
M. StrawM. Straw★RF0-33000001
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B0-22100020
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B1-33011011
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF0-33000011
E. ClementE. Clement★2B0-33001001
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF0-22000012
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS0-33000001
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C0-22000011
Y. PinangoY. PinangoLF1-11010000
J. SanchezJ. SanchezLF0-11000000
Team3-2626232069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. CeaseD. Cease★SP7.05000100
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP1.0100010
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP1.0000000
Team9.06000110

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

3

0

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

TOR leads series 1-0

May 8LAALAA0@TORTOR2today
May 9LAALAA@TORTORupcoming
May 10LAALAA@TORTORupcoming

Season series

TOR leads series 3-1

Apr 21TORTOR5@LAALAA2
Apr 22TORTOR4@LAALAA2
Apr 22TORTOR3@LAALAA7
May 8LAALAA0@TORTOR2today
May 9LAALAA@TORTORupcoming
May 10LAALAA@TORTORupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+13543%
TORTOR-16362%

↗7· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

LAALAA
V. Grissom

V. Grissom

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

R. Detmers

R. Detmers

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 6 BB

TORTOR
Y. Pinango

Y. Pinango

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 5 H

How it ended

TOR beat LAA 2-0.

Win probability

TOR vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Score progression

0 lead changes

T2T3T4T5T6T7T8T9
LAA0
TOR2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 74% WP

Okamoto · singled to center, Springer scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.

TORTop 4th Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 81% WP

Trout · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Neto out at second.

LAATop 8th Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 20% WP

Grissom · doubled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000000000
TOR00200000—2

Period scoring

LAA won 0 · TOR won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Okamoto 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAA
TOR

Play-by-play · 539 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  2. T9

    Moncada flied out to left.

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  8. T9

    Louis Varland pitches to Yoan Moncada

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  9. T9

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  10. T9

    Soler grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

    +3pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  14. T9

    Louis Varland pitches to Jorge Soler

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  15. T9

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  16. T9

    Schanuel grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

    +4pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  20. T9

    Louis Varland pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  21. T9

    Varland relieved Hoffman

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  22. T9

    Sánchez in right field.

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  23. T9

    Pinango in left field.

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  26. B8

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  27. B8

    Sánchez popped out to second.

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

    −0.5pp

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·TOR 2

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

0

Runs

2

6

Hits

3

1

Errors

1

8

TB

3

0

HR

0

0

BB

6

11

K

9

9

LOB

13

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 7.5·LAA +135/TOR -163

DraftKings · via ESPN