MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Rodríguez lined into double play, second to first, Cruz doubled off first. → win prob 51→57% HOU

BOT 4TH+1PIT

PIT

33-29

HOU

28-35

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 980 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 40-01 out

Pitcher· PIT

J. Jones

3.1 IP, 4 K, 0 ER

Batter· HOU

C. Smith

0-1

LastJared Jones pitches to Cam Smith

Live · model leanBot 4thPolls every 30s

54.2%

PIT wins · current

Pre-game: 54.2% HOU

PIT 1 · 0 HOU

PIT +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsHOU leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingHOUTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+7pp→ 57% WP
Rodr · íguez lined into double play, second to first, Cruz doubled off first.
SwingPITTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 41% WP
O'Hearn · singled to center, Lowe scored.

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 12.95

J. Jones

0-0 · 10.38 ERA

K. Teng

3-3 · 2.57 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

HOU no-vig %

50.5%

open 50.4% · +0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
54.6%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.1%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.8%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

26.1%

-28.5ppvs pre-game · PIT favored

Leverage

±7.7

pp · next play

high · 52/100

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.11

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.5%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.8pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

PIT

no live price

HOU

★ best

-112DraftKings

edge +3.8pp · implied 50.4%

Book	PIT	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	-108	-112★	+3.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

HOU vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8low
Paul SkenesPIT
6.7± 3.2low
Peter LambertHOU
5.4± 2.7low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.3± 0.8high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.4high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.9± 3.4high
Christian WalkerHOU
2.2± 2.9high
Oneil CruzPIT
2.2± 1.9high

RBIs

Christian WalkerHOU
1.1± 1.4high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.1± 1.5high
Oneil CruzPIT
1.0± 1.2high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.8low
Mitch KellerPIT
3.0± 3.1low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

PIT

Pirates

33-32

vs54.2%HOU

HOU★

Astros

33-40

PIT 45.8%win prob54.2% HOU

HOU 1497 · PIT 1489Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
S. Horwitz★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.3
SPRINT24.85
B. Lowe★2B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	8.6
SPRINT27.148
B. Reynolds★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.0
SPRINT27.969
R. O'Hearn★RF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	4.6
SPRINT26.735
N. Gonzales★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.7
SPRINT28.586
O. Cruz★CF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3.4
E. Rodriguez★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
J. Mangum★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
J. Triolo★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.6
Team	2-13	13	1	2	1	0	1	1	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

S. Horwitz★1B

0-2

1.3

B. Lowe★2B

1-2

8.6

B. Reynolds★LF

0-2

6.0

R. O'Hearn★RF

1-2

4.6

N. Gonzales★3B

0-2

2.7

O. Cruz★CF

0-0

3.4

E. Rodriguez★C

0-1

6.9

J. Mangum★LF

0-1

0.0

J. Triolo★3B

0-1

1.6

Team

2-13

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
J. Jones★SP	3.1	2	0	0	2	4	0	21.1
Team	3.1	2	0	0	2	4	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

J. Jones★SP

3.1

21.1

Team

3.1

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. Pena★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	10.0
SPRINT28.483
Y. Alvarez★DH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	13.2
SPRINT24.64
C. Walker★1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	7.8
SPRINT25.920
I. Paredes★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	8.6
SPRINT25.18
L. Wade Jr.★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	8.2
C. Smith★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.4
T. Trammell★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.3
C. Price★C	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2.2
N. Allen★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.9
Team	2-12	12	0	2	0	0	2	4	—

Batting

Analytics

Player