MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Dubón singled to right, Acuña Jr. to third. → win prob 46→56% ATL

MID 6TH+2TOR

TOR

29-33

ATL

42-20

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 980 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Mid 61-02 outs

Pitcher

D. Fuentes

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter

V. Guerrero Jr.

2-3

LastPitch 1 : Ball 1

Live · model leanMid 6thPolls every 30s

53.4%

TOR wins · current

Pre-game: 70.1% ATL

TOR 3 · 1 ATL

TOR +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsATL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipATLBottom 3rd Inning · 3-0
+11pp→ 56% WP
Dub · ón singled to right, Acuña Jr. to third.
Lead flipTORTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+17pp→ 66% WP
Straw · singled to center, McAdoo scored and Okamoto scored, Lukes to second.
SwingATLBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 81% WP
Harris II · doubled to center.

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.98

M. Fluharty

3-0 · 3.97 ERA

C. Sale

8-3 · 2.01 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

ATL no-vig %

63.6%

open 62.2% · +1.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.1%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
68.3%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
70.6%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.4%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

2.9%

-65.4ppvs pre-game · TOR favored

Leverage

±3.0

pp · next play

low · 9/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.44

CLV pp

Open price

-186

Close price

-199

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

63.6%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.7pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

ATL

★ best

-267DraftKings

edge +1.7pp · implied 68.4%

Book	TOR	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+197	-267★	+1.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ATL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.3± 2.8low
Spencer StriderATL
6.7± 2.6low
Trey YesavageTOR
5.6± 2.2low

Hits

Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.3± 1.1high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.3± 0.7high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.3± 2.0high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
2.1± 2.4high
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
0.8± 1.3high
Michael Harris IIATL
0.7± 1.2high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
2.4± 2.4low
Grant HolmesATL
2.3± 1.7low
Spencer StriderATL
2.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One model★ Lock

● Live

TOR

Blue Jays

28-42

vs70.1%ATL

ATL★

Braves

47-21

TOR 29.9%win prob70.1% ATL

ATL 1583 · TOR 1474Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
G. Springer★DH	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	5.2
E. Clement★2B	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	4.3
SPRINT27.354
V. Guerrero Jr.★1B	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	0	4.0
SPRINT26.123
K. Okamoto★3B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	29.5
SPRINT26.123
C. McAdoo★2B	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	0	1	31.2
N. Lukes★RF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	29.0
M. Straw★RF	1-3	3	0	1	2	0	0	1	14.5
SPRINT29.597
T. Heineman★C	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	1.8
Y. Pinango★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	2.1
Team	10-26	26	3	10	3	0	2	6	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

G. Springer★DH

1-3

5.2

E. Clement★2B

2-4

4.3

V. Guerrero Jr.★1B

2-3

4.0

K. Okamoto★3B

1-3

29.5

C. McAdoo★2B

1-3

31.2

N. Lukes★RF

1-1

29.0

M. Straw★RF

1-3

14.5

T. Heineman★C

1-3

1.8

Y. Pinango★LF

0-3

2.1

Team

10-26

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
M. Fluharty★RP	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	4.7
C. DallasSP	3.2	2	1	1	2	2	0	3.9
Team	5.0	3	1	1	3	3	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

M. Fluharty★RP

1.1

4.7

C. DallasSP

3.2

3.9

Team

5.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
R. Acuna Jr.★RF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	19.4
SPRINT26.838
M. Dubon★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	2.4
SPRINT26.428
M. Olson★1B	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	5.1
SPRINT25.513
O. Albies★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.6
SPRINT27.354
M. Harris II★CF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	5.5
SPRINT27.148
D. Smith★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
A. Riley★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	7.4
M. Yastrzemski★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1.7
S. Leon★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.0
Team	3-17	17	1	3	1	0	3	3	—

Batting

Analytics

Player