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FINAL+1ATL
WSH

WSH

25-27

4
5
ATL

ATL

36-16

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
36,082 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ATL no-vig %

66.1%

open 65.7% · +0.4

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL70.1%61.6%ATL NO-VIG %MODEL 67.3%May 21, 10 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

WSH 4 · ATL 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
WSH000001010204
ATL000000200215

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.2pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

ATL

★ best
-194DraftKings

edge +5.2pp · implied 62.1%

BookWSHATLBest edge
DraftKings+148-194★+5.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 15, 26sim 99
    282
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 97
    21
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 96
    174
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 94
    134
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 94
    283
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 94
    294
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasATL -194

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Washington Nationals, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +1.5 cashed (ATL won by 1). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Curtis Mead

Curtis Mead

1B

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Austin Riley

Austin Riley

3B

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
WSH25-27
4
5
ATL36-16
WSH25-27·ATL36-16
WSH

WSH

25-27

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44110011
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-44000001
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
2-55121101
SPRINT26.838
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-55123100
SPRINT28.483
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-55010001
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-55010000
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33010001
D. MillasD. Millas★C
1-55010001
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-55010001
J. TenaJ. TenaDH
0-11000000
J. VivasJ. Vivas3B
0-11000001
Team10-43434104228
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. LoveladyR. Lovelady★RP
1.0100000
M. MikolasM. MikolasSP
5.0300030
M. ParkerM. ParkerRP
1.0322110
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000020
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
1.0100010
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0221200
P. SchultzP. SchultzRP
0.2110010
Team10.21153380
ATL

ATL

36-16

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-44000010
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
3-55031001
SPRINT26.428
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-55000001
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-44000010
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-55110001
SPRINT27.148
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
3-33130010
SPRINT27.765
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-55011001
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-55111002
S. LeonS. Leon★C
0-11000000
E. WhiteE. WhiteCF
0-11100000
M. YastrzemskiM. YastrzemskiLF
0-11000001
C. TrompC. TrompC
2-33122001
Team11-42425115038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
6.0511141
D. FuentesD. FuentesRP
1.0200010
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0211001
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000010
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0121100
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000020
Team11.01043282

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • M. Mikolas
    66 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      36%·92.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      24%·92.9 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·75.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Parker
    31 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      52%·82.3 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      26%·78.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      23%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      48%·96.3 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      17%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • SL
      53%·84.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      47%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Schultz
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      57%·93.5 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      29%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.1 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      50%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Varland
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.7 mph·33% whiff

ATL

  • B. Elder
    87 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      29%·92.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      25%·82.5 mph·18% whiff
    • SI
      22%·91.8 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      9%·88.7 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Fuentes
    27 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      52%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      37%·88.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      11%·91.8 mph·— whiff
  • D. Lee
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      67%·83.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.2 mph·— whiff
  • R. Suarez
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      45%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      40%·90.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      15%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SL
      73%·87.3 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      18%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.7 mph·— whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • CH
      50%·87.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

11

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

May 22WSHWSH4@ATLATL5today
May 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL0
May 24WSHWSH2@ATLATL1

Season series

ATL leads series 4-1

Apr 20ATLATL9@WSHWSH4
Apr 21ATLATL4@WSHWSH11
Apr 22ATLATL8@WSHWSH6
Apr 23ATLATL7@WSHWSH2
May 22WSHWSH4@ATLATL5today
May 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL0
May 24WSHWSH2@ATLATL1
Jul 30WSHWSH@ATLATLupcoming
Jul 31WSHWSH@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 1WSHWSH@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 2WSHWSH@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 1ATLATL@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 2ATLATL@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+15939%
ATLATL-19466%

↘5· 3.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 47pp · Top 10th Inning

WSHWSH
C. Mead

C. Mead

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H

ATLATL
A. Riley

A. Riley

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATL beat WSH 5-4. Abrams's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (47pp).

Win probability

ATL vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 10th Inning · 4-2
+47pp→ 87% WP

Abrams · tripled to right, Wood scored and Chaparro scored.

ATLBottom 10th Inning · 4-4
+27pp→ 85% WP

Dub · ón reached on infield single to shortstop, Tromp scored, Acuña Jr. to second.

ATLBottom 11th Inning · 4-5
+37pp→ 100% WP

Tromp · singled to center, White scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
WSH000001010204
ATL000000200215

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · ATL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Mead 1

0
2

Inn 7

Smith 1

1
0

Inn 8

Abrams 1

0
0

Inn 9

2
2

Inn 10

Abrams 2

Tromp 1

0
1

Inn 11

Tromp 1

WSH
ATL

Play-by-play · 697 plays

period
event
player
  1. B11

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 5

  2. B11

    Tromp singled to center, White scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 5

    +37pp

  3. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 5

  4. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  5. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  6. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 5

  7. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  8. B11

    Paxton Schultz pitches to Chadwick Tromp

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 5

  9. B11

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  10. B11

    Kim struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

    −10pp

  11. B11

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  12. B11

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  13. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  14. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  15. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  16. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  17. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  18. B11

    Paxton Schultz pitches to Ha-Seong Kim

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  19. B11

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  20. B11

    Smith flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

    −11pp

  21. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  22. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  23. B11

    Paxton Schultz pitches to Dominic Smith

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  24. B11

    Schultz relieved Vivas

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  25. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  26. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  27. T11

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  28. T11

    Nuñez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

    +10pp

  29. T11

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

  30. T11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 4

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

4

Runs

5

10

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

18

TB

12

2

HR

0

2

BB

3

8

K

8

19

LOB

22

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8.5·WSH +159/ATL -194

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

ATL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.3± 4.0low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    64.7%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.0%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.5%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483