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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5TB
MIA

MIA

20-25

2
7
TB

TB

29-14

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
14,919 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TB no-vig %

52.1%

open 51.7% · +0.3

+2.0-0.5TB SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL56.2%47.5%TB NO-VIG %May 14, 4 PMMay 15, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

MIA 2 · TB 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0100010002
TB220201007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.3pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

MIA

no live price

TB

★ best
-128DraftKings

edge +13.3pp · implied 53.7%

BookMIATBBest edge
DraftKings+107-128★+13.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1/VegasTB -128

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Miami Marlins, 7–2.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Jakob Marsee

Jakob Marsee

CF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Cedric Mullins

Cedric Mullins

CF

2.750OPS

4-4

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA20-25
2
7
TB29-14
MIA20-25·TB29-14
MIA

MIA

20-25

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-44020001
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-44000001
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT28.381
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
0-44000000
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-44000002
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-44111100
SPRINT2872
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
3-44131100
SPRINT27.765
E. RuizE. Ruiz★RF
0-33000000
J. MackJ. Mack★C
0-33000002
O. CaissieO. CaissieRF
0-11000000
Team7-3535272206
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. JunkJ. Junk★SP
5.21077342
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.1000010
A. NardiA. NardiRP
1.0100020
Team8.01177372
TB

TB

29-14

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-44020000
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-44000001
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
0-22100021
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-33112110
SPRINT25.716
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
0-33000001
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
2-33120001
SPRINT26.838
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
4-44341100
SPRINT27.662
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
1-22111000
SPRINT27.354
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
1-33013001
SPRINT27.765
J. DeLucaJ. DeLucaRF
0-11000001
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson2B
0-11000001
N. FortesN. FortesC
0-11000000
Team11-31317117237
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
I. SeymourI. Seymour★RP
2.0211021
J. ScholtensJ. ScholtensRP
5.0511041
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
2.0000000
Team9.0722062

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • J. Junk
    100 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.3 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.3 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      17%·87.2 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      11%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Nardi
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      69%·95.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      19%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • M. Petersen
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      43%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      21%·89.7 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • J. Scholtens
    68 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      37%·87.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      21%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      16%·83.6 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      3%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Seymour
    25 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      40%·83.4 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      28%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·90.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      12%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Legumina
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·80.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

11

2

Runs

7

0

Errors

2

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

May 15MIAMIA2@TBTB7today
May 16MIAMIA10@TBTB5
May 17MIAMIA3@TBTB6

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

May 15MIAMIA2@TBTB7today
May 16MIAMIA10@TBTB5
May 17MIAMIA3@TBTB6
Jun 5TBTB@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 6TBTB@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 7TBTB@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+10748%
TBTB-12856%

↘2· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 1st Inning

MIAMIA
J. Marsee

J. Marsee

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

J. Junk

J. Junk

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 7 ER · 10 H · 3 BB

TBTB
C. Mullins

C. Mullins

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

J. Scholtens

J. Scholtens

RP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H

How it ended

TB beat MIA 7-2. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 1st inning (20pp).

Win probability

TB vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+20pp→ 74% WP

Díaz homered to left (374 feet), Aranda scored.

MIATop 2nd Inning · 1-2
+9pp→ 32% WP

Norby · homered to left center (412 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0100010002
TB22020100—7

Period scoring

MIA won 0 · TB won 3

0
2

Inn 1

1
2

Inn 2

Norby 1

Feduccia 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Walls 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Marsee 1

Mullins 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIA
TB

Play-by-play · 503 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  2. T9

    Caissie flied out to left.

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  7. T9

    Casey Legumina pitches to Owen Caissie

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  8. T9

    Caissie hit for Ruiz

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  9. T9

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  10. T9

    Marsee grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  13. T9

    Casey Legumina pitches to Jakob Marsee

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  14. T9

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  15. T9

    Norby grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  22. T9

    Casey Legumina pitches to Connor Norby

    ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  23. T9

    Fortes catching.

    MIA 2·TB 7

  24. T9

    Williamson at second base.

    MIA 2·TB 7

  25. T9

    DeLuca in right field.

    MIA 2·TB 7

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIA 2·TB 7

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIA 2·TB 7

  28. B8

    · ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  29. B8

    Fortes fouled out to first.

    · ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 2·TB 7

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

TB

Home

2

Runs

7

7

Hits

11

0

Errors

2

13

TB

22

2

HR

2

0

BB

3

6

K

7

9

LOB

8

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8·MIA +107/TB -128

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jake FraleyTB · RF
    SPRINT28.278

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.39

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

53.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

TB vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.9%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    64.5%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.7%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.3%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 99
    204
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 97
    21
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 97
    174
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 95
    294
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 94
    113
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 94
    295
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs