
WSH
19-20

MIA
17-22
Line movement
200 snapshots
MIA spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.0 · +0.5
MIA no-vig %
53.2%
open 53.2%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
WSH wins
WSH 3 · MIA 2 (by 1)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked MIA +5pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| MIA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Recap · MLB
ashington Nationals went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.
WSH +1.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer

Jacob Young
CF
3-1
AB-H
1
R
2
RBI
MIA · top performer

Xavier Edwards
2B
3-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box score
WSH
3
19-20
MIA
2
17-22
WSH
19-20
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
J. Wood★RF | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
C. Mead★1B | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
B. House★3B | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
C. Abrams★SS | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
J. Young★CF | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
D. Lile★LF | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J. Wiemer★RF | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
N. Nunez★2B | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
K. Ruiz★C | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
L. Garcia Jr.1B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 6-31 | 31 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
F. Griffin★SP | 7.0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
B. LordRP | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
P. PoulinRP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 9.0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
MIA
17-22
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
X. Edwards★2B | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
O. Lopez★SS | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
K. Stowers★LF | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
C. Morel★LF | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C. Norby★1B | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
J. Sanoja★3B | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J. Mack★C | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
L. Jimenez★2B | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
E. Ruiz★CF | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
L. HicksC | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J. MarseeCF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 5-33 | 33 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
R. Snelling★SP | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
A. BenderRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
J. KingRP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
T. PhillipsRP | 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
Hits
5
3
Runs
2
2
Errors
0
Current series
WSH leads series 1-0
Season series
WSH leads series 1-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIA -1.5
1.5pt· 6.2h
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
0.5pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.5 since open
Total
8.5
+0.5 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 8th Inning
J. Young
CFBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS
F. Griffin
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
7.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB
X. Edwards
2BBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS
R. Snelling
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 4 BB
How it ended
WSH beat MIA 3-2. Stowers's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
MIA vs WSH
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactYoung · homered to left (403 feet), Abrams scored.
Stowers · struck out swinging.
Jim · énez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Hernández out at second.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| MIA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Period scoring
WSH won 1 · MIA won 0
Inn 1
Young 2
Edwards 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 560 plays
End of the 9th inning
WSH 3·MIA 2
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Jiménez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Hernández out at second.BIG MOMENT
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
−16pp
Pitch 7 : Ball In Play
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
PJ Poulin pitches to Leo Jimenez
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Hernández walked, Sanoja to second.BIG MOMENT
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
+6pp
Pitch 6 : Ball 4
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 4 : Ball 3
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
PJ Poulin pitches to Heriberto Hernandez
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Poulin relieved Lord
·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Hernández hit for Mack
·
WSH 3·MIA 2
·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Sanoja safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Abrams.
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
+4pp
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Brad Lord pitches to Javier Sanoja
·
WSH 3·MIA 2
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
3
Runs
2
6
Hits
5
2
Errors
0
10
TB
9
1
HR
1
6
BB
2
6
K
11
13
LOB
9
Betting line
MIA -1.5·O/U 8.5·WSH +117/MIA -141
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 63 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.1%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
54.6%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.7%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.71 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
89% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen