• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • WNBA logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1WSH
WSH

WSH

19-20

3
2
MIA

MIA

17-22

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
12,070 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

MIA no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

+2.0-2.0MIA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL57.2%48.6%MIA NO-VIG %MODEL 54.6%May 7, 3 PMMay 8, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 3 · MIA 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH3000000003
MIA2000000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 59-30
59%Last 30 · 247-172
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, May 8·Final/SeriesWSH leads series 1-0/VegasMIA -141

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +1.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Jacob Young

Jacob Young

CF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Xavier Edwards

Xavier Edwards

2B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

Box score · Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box score

WSH

3

19-20

Final

MIA

2

17-22

WSH

WSH

19-20

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF0-55000002
C. MeadC. Mead★1B1-22110020
B. HouseB. House★3B1-44010001
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS1-33111011
J. YoungJ. Young★CF1-33112110
D. LileD. Lile★LF1-44010000
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF0-33000012
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B1-33010010
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C0-33000000
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.1B0-11000000
Team6-3131363166
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. GriffinF. Griffin★SP7.0421191
B. LordB. LordRP1.2100020
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP0.1000100
Team9.05212111
MIA

MIA

17-22

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B1-33111111
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS3-44130000
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF0-44000003
C. MorelC. Morel★LF0-33000000
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B0-33000002
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B0-44000000
J. MackJ. Mack★C0-33000001
L. JimenezL. Jimenez★2B1-44010001
E. RuizE. Ruiz★CF0-33000002
L. HicksL. HicksC0-11000000
J. MarseeJ. MarseeCF0-11000001
Team5-33332511211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SnellingR. Snelling★SP5.0533421
A. BenderA. BenderRP1.0000010
J. KingJ. KingRP0.2000110
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP2.1100120
Team9.0633661

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

3

Runs

2

2

Errors

0

Current series

WSH leads series 1-0

May 8WSHWSH3@MIAMIA2today
May 9WSHWSH@MIAMIAupcoming
May 10WSHWSH@MIAMIAupcoming

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

May 8WSHWSH3@MIAMIA2today
May 9WSHWSH@MIAMIAupcoming
May 10WSHWSH@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 1MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming
Jun 2MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming
Jun 3MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 21WSHWSH@MIAMIAupcoming
Aug 22WSHWSH@MIAMIAupcoming
Aug 23WSHWSH@MIAMIAupcoming
Aug 28MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 29MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 30MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 31MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

WSHWSH+11746%
MIAMIA-14159%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 8th Inning

WSHWSH
J. Young

J. Young

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

F. Griffin

F. Griffin

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

MIAMIA
X. Edwards

X. Edwards

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

R. Snelling

R. Snelling

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

WSH beat MIA 3-2. Stowers's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIA vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Score progression

0 lead changes

T2T3T4T5T6T7T8T9
WSH3
MIA2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+16pp→ 77% WP

Young · homered to left (403 feet), Abrams scored.

WSHBottom 8th Inning · 3-2
+18pp→ 80% WP

Stowers · struck out swinging.

WSHBottom 9th Inning · 3-2
+16pp→ 100% WP

Jim · énez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Hernández out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH3000000003
MIA2000000002

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · MIA won 0

3
2

Inn 1

Young 2

Edwards 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

WSH
MIA

Play-by-play · 560 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  3. B9

    Jiménez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Hernández out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

    −16pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  11. B9

    PJ Poulin pitches to Leo Jimenez

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  12. B9

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  13. B9

    Hernández walked, Sanoja to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

    +6pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  20. B9

    PJ Poulin pitches to Heriberto Hernandez

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  21. B9

    Poulin relieved Lord

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  22. B9

    Hernández hit for Mack

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  23. B9

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  24. B9

    Sanoja safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Abrams.

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

    +4pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

  30. B9

    Brad Lord pitches to Javier Sanoja

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 2

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

3

Runs

2

6

Hits

5

2

Errors

0

10

TB

9

1

HR

1

6

BB

2

6

K

11

13

LOB

9

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 8.5·WSH +117/MIA -141

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 63 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Eury PerezMIA
    5.6± 2.5low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    5.6± 1.8low
  • Jake IrvinWSH
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.6± 0.8high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Liam HicksMIA
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Otto LopezMIA
    2.3± 1.2high
  • Liam HicksMIA
    2.1± 2.4high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.7high

RBIs

  • CJ AbramsWSH
    1.1± 1.6high
  • Liam HicksMIA
    1.0± 1.3high
  • Brady HouseWSH
    0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    3.7± 3.5low
  • Miles MikolasWSH
    3.4± 4.4low
  • Eury PerezMIA
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.1%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    54.6%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.0%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen