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FINAL+1MIA
NYM

NYM

22-29

1
2
MIA

MIA

23-29

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
17,095 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIA no-vig %

46.7%

open 45.8% · +0.9

+2.0-0.5MIA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL51.1%41.8%MIA NO-VIG %May 21, 4 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

NYM 1 · MIA 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM1000000001
MIA010100002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

52%Last 7 · 46-42
61%Last 30 · 309-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.3pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

MIA

★ best
-152DraftKings

edge +4.3pp · implied 56.7%

BookNYMMIABest edge
DraftKings+117-152★+4.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 3-0/VegasMIA -120

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off New York Mets, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

MIA +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Juan Soto

Juan Soto

LF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Esteury Ruiz

Esteury Ruiz

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM22-29
1
2
MIA23-29
NYM22-29·MIA23-29
NYM

NYM

22-29

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-33000010
SPRINT28.586
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-44000001
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-33121100
SPRINT25.513
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-33000001
SPRINT25.513
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-22000000
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-33000001
A.J. EwingA.J. Ewing★CF
1-33010001
N. MorabitoN. Morabito★LF
0-33000003
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-22000001
T. TaylorT. TaylorCF
0-11000001
M. MelendezM. MelendezDH
0-11000001
Team3-28281311110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MyersT. Myers★RP
1.1111100
S. ManaeaS. ManaeaRP
3.2411030
J. TongJ. TongSP
3.0000120
Team8.0522250
MIA

MIA

23-29

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-44000001
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-44000001
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-22000011
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-33000001
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-33000001
E. RuizE. Ruiz★RF
2-33220000
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-22012010
SPRINT28.586
J. MackJ. Mack★C
1-33010000
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.381
O. LopezO. LopezSS
0-11000000
Team5-2828252025
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
6.1211051
A. NardiA. NardiRP
1.0000020
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
0.2100010
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000120
Team9.03111101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • S. Manaea
    65 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      40%·91.2 mph·10% whiff
    • ST
      29%·75.3 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      26%·91.7 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Tong
    28 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      61%·95.9 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      11%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Myers
    20 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      60%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·81.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·89.1 mph·— whiff

MIA

  • E. Perez
    86 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      36%·98.8 mph·24% whiff
    • ST
      26%·82.9 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      16%·98.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      14%·89.0 mph·44% whiff
    • CH
      5%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·80.7 mph·— whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      60%·97.6 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      20%·91.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      15%·82.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      5%·94.6 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nardi
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • CH
      31%·91.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      15%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.6 mph·— whiff
  • M. Petersen
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      54%·98.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      38%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

5

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 3-0

May 22NYMNYM1@MIAMIA2today
May 23NYMNYM1@MIAMIA4
May 24NYMNYM0@MIAMIA4

Season series

MIA leads series 1-0

May 22NYMNYM1@MIAMIA2today
May 23NYMNYM1@MIAMIA4
May 24NYMNYM0@MIAMIA4
May 29MIAMIA7@NYMNYM9
May 30MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
May 31MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Jul 30MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Jul 31MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 1MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 2MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 7NYMNYM@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 8NYMNYM@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 9NYMNYM@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

NYMNYM-10150%
MIAMIA-12055%

↘4· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 4th Inning

NYMNYM
J. Soto

J. Soto

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

S. Manaea

S. Manaea

RP

Top reliever

3.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H

MIAMIA
E. Ruiz

E. Ruiz

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.333 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 2 H

How it ended

MIA beat NYM 2-1.

Win probability

MIA vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 55% WP

Soto · homered to right center (449 feet).

MIABottom 4th Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 69% WP

Caissie · singled to center, Ruiz scored.

MIATop 9th Inning · 1-2
+7pp→ 100% WP

Bichette · flied out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM1000000001
MIA01010000—2

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · MIA won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Soto 1

0
1

Inn 2

Caissie 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Caissie 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYM
MIA

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  2. T9

    Bichette flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

    +7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  7. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Bo Bichette

    · ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  8. T9

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  9. T9

    Benge walked.

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

    −5pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  16. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Carson Benge

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  17. T9

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  18. T9

    Melendez struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

    +3pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  25. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to MJ Melendez

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  26. T9

    Melendez hit for Torrens

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  27. T9

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  28. T9

    Morabito struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

    +6pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYM 1·MIA 2

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

1

Runs

2

3

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

6

TB

9

1

HR

0

1

BB

2

10

K

5

2

LOB

7

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 8·NYM -101/MIA -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.90

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

46.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 98
    211
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 97
    182
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 96
    203
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 95
    211
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    211
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 95
    210
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

MIA vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.3± 2.2low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.7± 3.3low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.8± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    60.5%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.9%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.3%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.