MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4PIT

PIT

33-28

106

HOU

27-35

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

25,513 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

HOU no-vig %

51.0%

open 51.1% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
55.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.7%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.1%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.63 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.43

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-117

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.2pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

PIT

no live price

HOU

★ best

-119DraftKings

edge +3.2pp · implied 51.8%

Book	PIT	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	-102	-119★	+3.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

HOU vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.8medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.9low
Peter LambertHOU
5.3± 2.5low

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.4± 1.0high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.1± 0.8high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Christian WalkerHOU
1.9± 1.6high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.9± 2.2high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.7± 1.1high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.6low
Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Jared JonesPIT
3.0± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

HOU

.736

OPS

.717

.730

.334

OBP

◀

.319

.318

4.95

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.54

4.26

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.95

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 10 · HOU 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	2	0	0	0	4	0	3	1	10
HOU	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. Horwitz1B	.282	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. Lowe2B	.258	5	1	1	3	1	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.272	3	0	0	0	0	2	1
R. O'HearnRF	.293	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
N. Gonzales3B	.312	4	3	3	0	0	1	0
O. CruzCF	.258	5	1	2	3	1	0	2
E. RodriguezC	.300	4	2	2	3	1	1	0
J. MangumLF	.287	4	1	3	0	0	0	1
J. TrioloSS	.229	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
Team		35	10	12	9	3	8	11

Player

.282

.258

.272

.293

.312

.258

.300

.287

.229

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ChandlerSP	5.0	6	4	4	2	3	91
W. DotelRP	3.0	0	0	0	2	3	41
D. SantanaRP	0.1	3	2	2	1	1	19
G. SotoRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	7
Team	9.0	9	6	6	5	9	158

Player

5.0

3.0

0.1

0.2

Team

9.0

158

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.289	5	2	3	2	0	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.305	4	1	2	3	1	1	0
C. Walker1B	.248	5	0	1	1	0	0	3
I. Paredes3B	.233	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. TrammellCF	.291	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SmithRF	.216	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. MeyersCF	.237	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. MatthewsCF	.205	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. VazquezC	.248	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
Team		35	6	9	6	1	5	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BurrowsSP	5.0	8	6	5	5	3	90
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21
B. AbreuRP	1.0	2	3	3	1	2	32
A. BlubaughRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	3	23
Team	9.0	12	10	9	8	11	177

Team

PIT

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

HOU vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.