Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at TEX?

The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 28, 2026

FINAL+1NYY

NYY

20-10

TEX

14-16

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

26,767 attended

Line movement

60 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

TEX no-vig %

47.4%

open 47.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
43.3%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.1%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at TEX?: The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TEX vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.8± 3.2medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 2.5medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.2± 3.6low

Hits

Wyatt LangfordTEX
1.4± 1.1high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.9high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Wyatt LangfordTEX
2.6± 2.3high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.3± 2.0high
Ben RiceNYY
2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

Ben RiceNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Jose CaballeroNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.9± 2.3medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 3.1low
Jacob deGromTEX
2.5± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

TEX

.768

OPS

◀

.718

.705

.331

OBP

◀

.319

.318

5.09

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

3.37

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.93

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.25

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 3 · TEX 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.157	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Rice1B	.309	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. JudgeRF	.262	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
C. BellingerLF	.240	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.210	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DominguezDH	.125	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WellsC	.200	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
R. McMahon3B	.174	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. CaballeroSS	.265	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	5	3	2	0	7

Player

.157

.309

.262

.240

.210

.125

.200

.174

.265

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SchlittlerSP	6.0	3	0	0	2	8	92
B. HeadrickRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	19
F. CruzRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	17
D. BednarRP	1.0	2	2	1	0	0	22
Team	9.0	7	2	1	4	11	150

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.287	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. Jung3B	.320	4	0	2	1	0	1	1
C. SeagerSS	.213	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
J. PedersonDH	.224	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. CarterCF	.198	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Smith2B	.193	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. OsunaLF	.429	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. JansenC	.209	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
S. HaggertyLF	.167	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Duran2B	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. McCutchenDH	.195	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	7	2	0	4	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. deGromSP	6.0	3	1	1	0	5	93
J. BeeksRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	15
J. JunisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
C. WinnRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	20
Team	9.0	5	3	3	0	7	139

Team

NYY

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TEX vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.