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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3LAD
LAD

LAD

17-8

3
0
SF

SF

11-14

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
38,619 attended

Line movement

33 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

40.7%

open 40.7%

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL44.7%36.7%SF NO-VIG %MODEL 38.6%May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 3 · SF 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0102000003
SF0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 23, 26sim 97
    190
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 94
    191
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 93
    82
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 93
    103
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 93
    191
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 11, 26sim 93
    102
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Apr 23·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasLAD -163

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 3–0.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Dalton Rushing

Dalton Rushing

C

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

2B

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD17-8
3
0
SF11-14
LAD17-8·SF11-14
LAD

LAD

17-8

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-55000002
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-44000002
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
2-44120001
SPRINT26.123
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33210010
SPRINT27.354
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-44000000
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
1-22011010
SPRINT27.867
H. KimH. Kim★SS
2-44021001
SPRINT28.381
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
1-33010011
Team8-3333382037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
8.0100190
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000000
Team9.0100190
SF

SF

11-14

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-44000002
SPRINT27.457
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-22010010
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-33000001
SPRINT28.175
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-33000003
SPRINT25.716
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
0-33000002
SPRINT27.251
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-33000000
W. BrennanW. Brennan★LF
0-33000001
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-22000000
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-33000000
J. EncarnacionJ. EncarnacionRF
0-11000000
Team1-2727010019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. WebbL. Webb★SP
7.0733250
B. TidwellB. TidwellRP
2.0100120
Team9.0833370

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • T. Glasnow
    105 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      44%·95.9 mph·26% whiff
    • SL
      20%·89.5 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      19%·80.3 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      4%·83.9 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Scott
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      77%·97.0 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      23%·90.7 mph·50% whiff

SF

  • L. Webb
    98 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      34%·86.2 mph·31% whiff
    • SI
      26%·92.5 mph·7% whiff
    • ST
      19%·84.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      13%·92.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.1 mph·17% whiff
  • B. Tidwell
    25 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      44%·81.9 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      40%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·83.4 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·83.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

1

3

Runs

0

1

Errors

1

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Apr 22LADLAD1@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD0@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD3@SFSF0today

Season series

SF leads series 2-1

Apr 22LADLAD1@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD0@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD3@SFSF0today
May 12SFSF9@LADLAD3
May 13SFSF6@LADLAD2
May 14SFSF0@LADLAD4
May 15SFSF2@LADLAD5
Sep 19SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 20SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 20SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 26LADLAD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 26LADLAD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 27LADLAD@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-16362%
SFSF+13543%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 33 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 2nd Inning

LADLAD
D. Rushing

D. Rushing

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

SFSF
L. Arraez

L. Arraez

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

L. Webb

L. Webb

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat SF 3-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 65% WP

Rushing · singled to center, Muncy scored, Rushing to second.

LADTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+9pp→ 81% WP

Muncy · doubled to center, Tucker scored on throwing error by center fielder Gilbert.

LADTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+8pp→ 84% WP

Kim · singled to left, Muncy scored, Kim to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0102000003
SF0000000000

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · SF won 0

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Rushing 1

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Muncy 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

LAD
SF

Play-by-play · 480 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 3·SF 0

  2. B9

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  3. B9

    Adames grounded out to third.

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

    −0.5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  9. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Willy Adames

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  10. B9

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  11. B9

    Bailey flied out to center.

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

    −1pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  16. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Patrick Bailey

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  17. B9

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  18. B9

    Encarnacion lined out to right.

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

    −1pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  23. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Jerar Encarnacion

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  24. B9

    Scott relieved Glasnow

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  25. B9

    Encarnacion hit for Gilbert

    ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 3·SF 0

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 3·SF 0

  28. T9

    · ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  29. T9

    Ohtani flied out to center.

    · ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 3·SF 0

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

SF

Home

3

Runs

0

8

Hits

1

1

Errors

1

10

TB

1

0

HR

0

3

BB

1

7

K

9

14

LOB

4

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 7.5·LAD -163/SF +135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SF vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    41.1%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.6%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.2%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175