MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIL

MIL

34-20

HOU

26-33

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

29,978 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

HOU no-vig %

47.5%

open 47.4% · +0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
40.9%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.8%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
39.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.56

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.7pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

MIL

★ best

-143DraftKings

edge +3.7pp · implied 56.3%

HOU

no live price

Book	MIL	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	-143★	+119	+3.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

HOU vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.8± 2.6low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.3± 5.5low
Peter LambertHOU
5.3± 2.5low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.5± 1.2high
Andrew VaughnMIL
1.4± 1.4high
Christian YelichMIL
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.9± 2.7high
Brice TurangMIL
2.2± 2.5high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Jake BauersMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Brice TurangMIL
0.9± 1.2high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.7± 2.8low
Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

HOU

.730

OPS

.715

.733

.340

OBP

◀

.319

.321

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.56

3.42

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.90

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 5 · HOU 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
MIL	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	1	0	1	5
HOU	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. YelichDH	.268	4	2	0	0	0	1	1
J. ChourioLF	.267	4	2	1	2	1	1	1
B. Turang2B	.273	2	0	0	1	0	2	2
W. ContrerasC	.296	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Bauers1B	.281	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
G. MitchellCF	.241	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
L. Rengifo3B	.201	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. FrelickRF	.218	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. HamiltonSS	.226	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. Vaughn1B	.321	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. PerkinsCF	.095	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. SanchezDH	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OrtizSS	.195	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	4	5	2	6	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.268

.267

.273

.296

.281

.241

.201

.218

.226

.321

.095

.200

.195

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. CrowSP	4.0	4	4	2	2	1	61
D. HallRP	2.0	0	0	0	2	3	36
G. AndersonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
A. AshbyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
A. UribeRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	19
T. MegillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	10.0	6	4	2	5	9	155

Player

4.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

155

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. TrammellCF	.349	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
I. Paredes3B	.234	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. AlvarezDH	.301	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
C. Walker1B	.254	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.221	4	1	2	2	1	1	1
B. ShewmakeSS	.250	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. MeyersCF	.215	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
N. AllenSS	.283	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
C. SalazarC	.056	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. MatthewsCF	.204	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. DezenzoLF	.205	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PenaSS	.253	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. VazquezC	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		34	4	6	4	1	5	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
K. TengRP	5.0	3	3	3	4	7	91
S. OkertRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	23
B. AbreuRP	0.1	0	1	1	2	0	12
B. KingRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	23
A. SantaRP	1.0	0	1	0	0	1	11
Team	10.0	4	5	4	6	9	160

Team

MIL

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

HOU vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.