Park factor
103 total idx
Great American Ball Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
ATL
ATL
39-19
PregameSat, 7:15 PM EDT
CIN
CIN
29-27
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketGreat American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
Line movement
200 snapshots
CIN spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 9.5
open O/U 9.5
CIN no-vig %
44.9%
open 43.7% · +1.2
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Martin Perez
SP · #33
2-3
W-L
2.70
ERA
1.03
WHIP
40
K
46.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsWSHL(2-3)5.2 IP1 ER2 K
@MIA-5.0 IP4 ER10 K
vsBOS-1.0 IP0 ER2 K
Home starter
Brady Singer
SP · #51
2-4
W-L
6.26
ERA
1.70
WHIP
34
K
46.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@CLEL(2-4)4.0 IP5 ER6 K
vsWSHL(2-3)3.2 IP3 ER2 K
@CHC-6.0 IP4 ER6 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9.5
Money-142 / +118
Model edge
Win prob61% / 39%
LeanAway · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesATL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take ATL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
CIN vs ATL.
CIN is 5-5 recently; ATL is 7-3.
38.7%
model · CIN win prob
Recent form
- CIN5–5+0.5
- ATL7–3+2.2
Situational
- CIN1d restB2B
- ATL1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CIN has 0 straight road games; ATL has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.3pp
Players to watch
- Michael Harris IIATL2.6total bases · ±3.2
Michael Harris II · 2.6 TB · last-10 3 vs season 1.9.
- Elly De La CruzCIN1.9total bases · ±2.3
Elly De La Cruz · 1.9 TB · last-10 1.8 vs season 2.1.
- Nathaniel LoweCIN1.9total bases · ±1.8
Nathaniel Lowe · 1.9 TB · last-10 2.1 vs season 1.7.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
CIN is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-05-29ATL @ CIN8–3
Line move
open +119→+113toward CIN
The market has moved 1.3pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.7%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
44.1%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.9%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.6%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.10 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CIN vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 77 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.3± 2.8low
- Chase BurnsCIN6.5± 3.8low
- Spencer StriderATL6.4± 2.8low
Hits
- Michael Harris IIATL1.3± 1.3high
- Blake DunnCIN1.3± 1.3low
- Ozzie AlbiesATL1.1± 1.2high
Total bases
- Michael Harris IIATL2.6± 3.2high
- Elly De La CruzCIN1.9± 2.3high
- Nathaniel LoweCIN1.9± 1.8high
RBIs
- Michael Harris IIATL0.8± 1.3high
- Tyler StephensonCIN0.8± 1.3high
- Matt OlsonATL0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Chris PaddackCIN3.4± 3.6low
- Nick LodoloCIN3.3± 2.3low
- Brady SingerCIN3.2± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
The One modelEdge
Sat, May 30ATL★
Braves
43-20
vs61.3%ATL
CIN
Reds
36-29
ATL 61.3%win prob38.7% CIN
ATL 1575 · CIN 1510Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
