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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4HOU
HOU

HOU

26-32

5
1
TEX

TEX

25-31

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
27,234 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

TEX no-vig %

58.4%

open 58.3% · +0.2

+0.5-2.0TEX SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL62.4%54.3%TEX NO-VIG %May 27, 4 PMMay 28, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 5 · TEX 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU3020000005
TEX0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.3pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

HOU

★ best
+123DraftKings

edge +6.3pp · implied 42.8%

TEX

no live price

BookHOUTEXBest edge
DraftKings+123★-149+6.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Thu, May 28·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 3-1/VegasTEX -149

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 5–1.

HOU +1.5 cashed (TEX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Isaac Paredes

Isaac Paredes

3B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Josh Jung

Josh Jung

3B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
HOU26-32
5
1
TEX25-31
HOU26-32·TEX25-31
HOU

HOU

26-32

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
2-44121100
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-33100011
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-33212110
SPRINT25.18
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
1-44111002
SPRINT2744
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
2-44021000
SPRINT29.395
B. ShewmakeB. Shewmake★SS
0-44000001
Z. DezenzoZ. Dezenzo★LF
0-33000001
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-33000002
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
0-33000000
N. AllenN. AllenSS
0-11000000
Team6-3232565227
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ArrighettiS. Arrighetti★SP
6.0311131
N. PearsonN. PearsonRP
0.2100120
S. OkertS. OkertRP
0.2000000
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
0.2000110
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0000020
Team9.0411381
TEX

TEX

25-31

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-33000000
SPRINT25.716
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
0-22000000
SPRINT2872
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-33000000
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
2-33121111
SPRINT25.920
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-33000001
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
0-44000002
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
2-44020001
SPRINT28.891
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-33000012
N. LopezN. Lopez★2B
0-33000011
J. FoscueJ. Foscue2B
0-11000000
S. HaggertyS. HaggertyLF
0-11000000
Team4-3030141138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. EovaldiN. Eovaldi★SP
7.0455262
C. QuantrillC. QuantrillRP
2.0200010
Team9.0655272

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

4

5

Runs

1

1

Errors

1

Current series

HOU wins series 3-1

May 25HOUHOU9@TEXTEX0
May 27HOUHOU7@TEXTEX10
May 28HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3
May 29HOUHOU5@TEXTEX1today

Season series

HOU leads series 5-2

May 16TEXTEX0@HOUHOU2
May 16TEXTEX1@HOUHOU4
May 17TEXTEX8@HOUHOU0
May 25HOUHOU9@TEXTEX0
May 27HOUHOU7@TEXTEX10
May 28HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3
May 29HOUHOU5@TEXTEX1today
Jul 11HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 11HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 12HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 1TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 1TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 2TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+12345%
TEXTEX-14960%

↘1· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 1st Inning

HOUHOU
I. Paredes

I. Paredes

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

S. Arrighetti

S. Arrighetti

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

TEXTEX
J. Jung

J. Jung

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

N. Eovaldi

N. Eovaldi

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

HOU beat TEX 5-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+16pp→ 70% WP

Paredes · homered to left (357 feet), Alvarez scored.

TEXBottom 2nd Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 39% WP

Jung · homered to left center (424 feet).

HOUTop 3rd Inning · 4-1
+11pp→ 75% WP

Trammell · doubled to right, Paredes scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU3020000005
TEX0100000001

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · TEX won 1

3
0

Inn 1

Paredes 2

0
1

Inn 2

Jung 1

2
0

Inn 3

Trammell 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

HOU
TEX

Play-by-play · 537 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  2. B9

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  3. B9

    Lopez lined out to right.

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  5. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Nicky Lopez

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  6. B9

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  7. B9

    Higashioka struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  14. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Kyle Higashioka

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  15. B9

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  16. B9

    Duran struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

    −1pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  22. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Ezequiel Duran

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  23. B9

    Abreu relieved De Los Santos

    ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  24. B9

    Matthews in left field.

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  25. B9

    Meyers in center field.

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  28. T9

    · ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  29. T9

    Allen lined out to shortstop.

    · ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 5·TEX 1

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

5

Runs

1

6

Hits

4

1

Errors

1

13

TB

7

2

HR

1

2

BB

3

7

K

8

5

LOB

14

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 7·HOU +123/TEX -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.17

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+128

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TEX vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.3%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    52.6%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.5%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.4%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 27, 26sim 99
    184
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 97
    262
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 97
    234
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 97
    232
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 96
    189
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 96
    232
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175