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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3PIT
PIT

PIT

27-26

4
1
TOR

TOR

25-28

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
41,354 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

59.1%

open 58.3% · +0.9

+0.5-2.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL63.1%54.3%TOR NO-VIG %May 23, 4 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 4 · TOR 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT1100020004
TOR0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.7pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

PIT

no live price

TOR

★ best
+101DraftKings

edge +4.7pp · implied 46.7%

BookPITTORBest edge
DraftKings-131+101★+4.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.04

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1/VegasTOR -176

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 4–1.

PIT +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez

Esmerlyn Valdez

OF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Brandon Valenzuela

Brandon Valenzuela

C

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT27-26
4
1
TOR25-28
PIT27-26·TOR25-28
PIT

PIT

27-26

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-44111110
SPRINT24.85
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.969
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-44000003
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44111102
SPRINT28.483
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★C
0-22100021
E. ValdezE. Valdez★OF
1-33112102
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
1-33010000
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-44000002
J. GarciaJ. GarciaRF
0-11000000
Team6-32324643412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellerM. Keller★SP
6.0411350
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
0.1100100
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.2000020
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0000110
Team9.0511580
TOR

TOR

25-28

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-44000010
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-55010001
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-00100020
SPRINT26.123
Y. PinangoY. Pinango★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT2622
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33000002
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.123
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44011000
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-33000001
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
1-22010020
L. SosaL. Sosa2B
0-11000000
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000001
D. SchneiderD. SchneiderLF
0-11000001
Team5-3131151058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. CeaseD. Cease★SP
4.2422182
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.2100120
C. LeeC. LeeRP
1.2122201
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0000010
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
1.0000010
Team9.06444123

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • M. Keller
    101 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      34%·93.0 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      22%·91.8 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      19%·81.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      10%·87.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      8%·78.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      7%·88.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      1%·89.0 mph·— whiff
  • G. Soto
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      45%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      41%·84.5 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      14%·97.4 mph·— whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      72%·98.6 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      22%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·86.5 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      56%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      44%·83.6 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • D. Cease
    76 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      32%·97.3 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      24%·88.4 mph·30% whiff
    • KC
      14%·82.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      3%·84.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Lee
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      50%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·89.3 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      9%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      58%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      37%·80.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.2 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FS
      40%·87.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      33%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • CU
      63%·80.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      38%·87.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

May 22PITPIT2@TORTOR6
May 23PITPIT2@TORTOR5
May 24PITPIT4@TORTOR1today

Season series

TOR wins series 2-1

May 22PITPIT2@TORTOR6
May 23PITPIT2@TORTOR5
May 24PITPIT4@TORTOR1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+14541%
TORTOR-17664%

↘6· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 2nd Inning

PITPIT
E. Valdez

E. Valdez

OF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

TORTOR
B. Valenzuela

B. Valenzuela

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PIT beat TOR 4-1. Cruz's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+20pp→ 67% WP

Cruz · homered to right (415 feet).

TORBottom 4th Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 43% WP

Clement · singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Pinango to second.

PITTop 6th Inning · 4-1
+20pp→ 86% WP

Valdez · homered to right (345 feet), Rodríguez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT1100020004
TOR0001000001

Period scoring

PIT won 3 · TOR won 1

1
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Clement 1

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Valdez 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

PIT
TOR

Play-by-play · 578 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  3. B9

    Varsho struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  9. B9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Daulton Varsho

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  10. B9

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  11. B9

    Springer popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

    −6pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  14. B9

    Gregory Soto pitches to George Springer

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  15. B9

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  16. B9

    Valenzuela walked, Giménez to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

    +7pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  24. B9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Brandon Valenzuela

    · ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  25. B9

    ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  26. B9

    Giménez hit by pitch.

    ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

    +2pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 4·TOR 1

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

4

Runs

1

6

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

15

TB

7

3

HR

0

4

BB

5

12

K

8

12

LOB

22

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 7.5·PIT +145/TOR -176

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 28, 26sim 97
    185
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 96
    184
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 96
    262
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 95
    280
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    232
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 95
    184
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TOR vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    2.5± 2.6low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.7%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    53.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.7%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.9%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483