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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3HOU
HOU

HOU

22-31

3
0
CHC

CHC

29-23

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
40,017 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 0.0 · +7.5

CHC no-vig %

58.3%

open 57.2% · +1.1

+0.5-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 8.0O/U -0.5TOTAL62.3%53.2%CHC NO-VIG %MODEL 53.8%May 22, 7 PMMay 23, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 3 · CHC 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU2001000003
CHC0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.4pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

HOU

★ best
+123DraftKings

edge +3.4pp · implied 42.8%

CHC

no live price

BookHOUCHCBest edge
DraftKings+123★-149+3.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 97
    184
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 97
    281
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 96
    92
    5(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 96
    280
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 94
    111
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 94
    234
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.09

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, May 23·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 3-0/VegasCHC -149

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 3–0.

HOU +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Walker

Christian Walker

1B

4.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Dansby Swanson

Dansby Swanson

SS

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU22-31
3
0
CHC29-23
HOU22-31·CHC29-23
HOU

HOU

22-31

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
0-44000000
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.18
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-22100011
SPRINT24.64
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
3-33233210
SPRINT25.920
B. ShewmakeB. Shewmake★SS
0-44000000
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.395
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
0-33000012
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.278
C. SalazarC. Salazar★C
0-33000001
Z. DezenzoZ. DezenzoLF
0-11000000
Team6-3131363245
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. TengK. Teng★RP
6.0200360
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0000010
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.0000010
B. KingB. KingRP
1.0100010
Team9.0300390
CHC

CHC

29-23

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT29.294
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.818
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-44000002
SPRINT25.716
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-22000010
SPRINT28.278
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-22000001
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-33000001
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
0-11000021
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
0-22000001
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT27.867
K. AlcantaraK. AlcantaraRF
0-11000001
P. RamirezP. Ramirez2B
0-11000000
Team3-2727030039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
7.0433342
T. ThorntonT. ThorntonRP
1.0100100
R. RolisonR. RolisonRP
1.0100010
Team9.0633452

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • K. Teng
    89 pitches·37% CSW
    • ST
      40%·84.7 mph·36% whiff
    • FF
      19%·93.3 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.5 mph·100% whiff
  • B. King
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      57%·91.6 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      38%·80.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      5%·91.4 mph·— whiff
  • S. Okert
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      73%·80.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      18%·91.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      9%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      38%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.4 mph·100% whiff

CHC

  • C. Rea
    98 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      41%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      18%·82.8 mph·43% whiff
    • FS
      16%·87.0 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      15%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      2%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·78.2 mph·— whiff
  • R. Rolison
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·80.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Thornton
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      36%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·80.1 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·91.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

3

3

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 3-0

May 22HOUHOU4@CHCCHC2
May 23HOUHOU3@CHCCHC0today
May 24HOUHOU8@CHCCHC5

Season series

HOU leads series 2-0

May 22HOUHOU4@CHCCHC2
May 23HOUHOU3@CHCCHC0today
May 24HOUHOU8@CHCCHC5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

↗1.5pt· 5.7h

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

↗7.5pt· 5.7h

Moneyline

HOUHOU+12345%
CHCCHC-14960%

↘7· 5.7h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 1st Inning

HOUHOU
C. Walker

C. Walker

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-3 · 2 HR · 4.000 OPS

K. Teng

K. Teng

RP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

CHCCHC
M. Ballesteros

M. Ballesteros

DH

Batter of the game

0-for-1 · 0.667 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

HOU beat CHC 3-0. Walker's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 60% WP

Walker · homered to left center (376 feet), Alvarez scored.

HOUBottom 3rd Inning · 2-0
+8pp→ 67% WP

Amaya · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Ballesteros out at second.

HOUTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+10pp→ 77% WP

Walker · homered to left center (369 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU2001000003
CHC0000000000

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

3

Runs

0

6

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

13

TB

3

2

HR

0

4

BB

3

5

K

9

7

LOB

5

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 7·HOU +123/CHC -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.0

+7.5 since open

Win probability

CHC vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · CHC won 0

2
0

Inn 1

Walker 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

HOU
CHC

Play-by-play · 512 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  3. B9

    Busch lined out to left.

    · ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  9. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Michael Busch

    · ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  10. B9

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  11. B9

    Bregman singled to center.

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

    +1pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  17. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Alex Bregman

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  18. B9

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  19. B9

    Crow-Armstrong struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

    −2pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  28. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  29. B9

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

  30. B9

    Swanson grounded out to third.

    ·

    HOU 3·CHC 0

    −2pp

Player projections

CHC vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    6.0± 4.4low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Carson KellyCHC
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Ian HappCHC
    1.6± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    55.0%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.4%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.3%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278