MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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FINAL+1BAL

ATH

21-19

BAL

18-23

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

24,213 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

BAL no-vig %

49.6%

open 48.9% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.9%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
47.8%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.3%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.5%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Player projections

BAL vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.6± 3.1low
Luis SeverinoATH
5.4± 2.9low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.9± 2.3low

Hits

Shea LangeliersATH
1.8± 0.8high
Jacob WilsonATH
1.3± 0.7high
Nick KurtzATH
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
3.1± 2.6high
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.3± 1.6high
Adley RutschmanBAL
2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.0± 1.3high
Brent RookerATH
0.9± 1.4high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Shane BazBAL
3.4± 2.2low
Jacob LopezATH
3.0± 2.3low
Chris BassittBAL
3.0± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

ATH 1 · BAL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
BAL	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSun, May 10FinalSeriesATH wins series 2-1VegasBAL -118

Recap · MLB

altimore Orioles held off Athletics, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

BAL +1.5 cashed (ATH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 10.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

Jacob Wilson

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

BAL · top performer

Gunnar Henderson

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

ATH21-19

BAL18-23

ATH21-19BAL18-23

ATH

21-19

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. Kurtz★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
SPRINT26.632
S. Langeliers★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Rooker★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
T. Soderstrom★LF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.735
J. Wilson★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.148
C. Cortes★RF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
L. Butler★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
Z. Gelof★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.891
J. McNeil★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Hernaiz3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. HeimC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	4-29	29	1	4	1	0	4	10

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
L. Severino★SP	5.1	6	2	2	4	4	0
J. SternerRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	0
L. MedinaRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	4	0
Team	8.0	6	2	2	5	10	0

BAL

18-23

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. Henderson★SS	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
SPRINT28.175
T. Ward★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
SPRINT27.457
A. Rutschman★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. Alonso★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Basallo★C	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT25.310
L. Taveras★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2993
D. Beavers★RF	2-4	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
SPRINT29.194
W. Wilson★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
B. Alexander★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1

Team	6-28	28	2	6	2	0	5	10

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
K. Akin★RP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
C. BassittSP	6.0	4	1	1	1	6	0
A. NunezRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0
R. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0
Team	9.0	4	1	1	4	10	0

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

L. Severino
102 pitches25% CSW
- SI
  35%96.3 mph8% whiff
- FF
  23%97.3 mph18% whiff
- ST
  23%85.7 mph10% whiff
- FC
  13%95.1 mph25% whiff
- SL
  5%87.7 mph— whiff
- CH
  2%82.8 mph— whiff
L. Medina
23 pitches52% CSW
- CH
  22%90.2 mph67% whiff
- CU
  22%79.6 mph50% whiff
- FF
  22%97.7 mph0% whiff
- SI
  22%97.3 mph— whiff
- SL
  13%86.5 mph100% whiff
J. Sterner
12 pitches50% CSW
- FF
  50%94.0 mph100% whiff
- FC
  25%89.6 mph0% whiff
- ST
  25%81.0 mph100% whiff

BAL

C. Bassitt
94 pitches32% CSW
- SI
  35%92.7 mph12% whiff
- FC
  31%89.9 mph20% whiff
- CU
  23%71.6 mph58% whiff
- ST
  5%78.2 mph25% whiff
- CH
  3%86.1 mph100% whiff
- FF
  2%91.2 mph0% whiff
A. Nunez
23 pitches35% CSW
- FF
  30%95.6 mph50% whiff
- ST
  30%86.5 mph100% whiff
- CH
  22%86.5 mph— whiff
- SI
  13%96.4 mph— whiff
- FC
  4%89.3 mph100% whiff
R. Garcia
17 pitches24% CSW
- FF
  47%95.7 mph0% whiff
- CH
  29%86.5 mph100% whiff
- CU
  18%86.0 mph0% whiff
- SL
  6%89.7 mph— whiff
K. Akin
13 pitches38% CSW
- CH
  46%87.6 mph33% whiff
- FF
  46%94.1 mph67% whiff
- SL
  8%87.2 mph100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

ATH wins series 2-1

May 8

ATH4@

BAL3

May 9

ATH6@

BAL2

May 10

ATH1@

BAL2today

Season series

ATH leads series 2-1

May 8

ATH4@

BAL3

May 9

ATH6@

BAL2

May 10

ATH1@

BAL2today

Aug 29

BAL@

ATHupcoming

Aug 30

BAL@

ATHupcoming

Aug 30

BAL@

ATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATH -1.5

Total

10.5

High-scoring · +2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATH-10250%

BAL-11854%

3· 5.8h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 6th Inning

ATH

J. Wilson

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

L. Severino

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

BAL

G. Henderson

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Bassitt

Top relieverQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat ATH 2-1.

Win probability

BAL vs ATH

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATHBottom 5th Inning · 1-1

+9pp→ 47% WP

Rutschman · flied out to left.

BALBottom 6th Inning · 1-2

+12pp→ 82% WP

Beavers · singled to left, Basallo scored, Taveras to third.

BALTop 8th Inning · 1-2

+11pp→ 77% WP

Rooker · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
BAL	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	—	2

Period scoring

ATH won 1 · BAL won 2

Inn 1

Inn 2

Cortes 1

Inn 3

Henderson 1

Inn 4

Inn 5

Inn 6

Beavers 1

Inn 7

Inn 8

Inn 9

ATH

BAL

Play-by-play · 539 plays

period

event

player

T9
· ·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Gelof popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT
· ·
ATH 1·BAL 2
+6pp
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Rico Garcia pitches to Zack Gelof
· ·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Butler walked.
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
−3pp
T9
Pitch 6 : Ball 4
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Pitch 5 : Ball 3
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Rico Garcia pitches to Lawrence Butler
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Cortes lined out to center.BIG MOMENT
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
+5pp
T9
Pitch 6 : Ball In Play
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Rico Garcia pitches to Carlos Cortes
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Heim struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
+7pp
T9
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Rico Garcia pitches to Jonah Heim
·
ATH 1·BAL 2
T9
Garcia relieved Nunez
·
ATH 1·BAL 2

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

ATH -1.5·O/U 10.5·ATH -102/BAL -118

DraftKings · via ESPN