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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3LAD
LAD

LAD

21-13

4
1
STL

STL

20-14

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
36,423 attended

Line movement

82 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.0 · +1.0

STL no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

+2.0-0.5STL SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 8.5TOTAL48.9%37.7%STL NO-VIG %MODEL 38.7%May 2, 5 PMMay 24, 11 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 4 · STL 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0200100014
STL0000000101

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 29, 26sim 99
    103
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 97
    104
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 97
    192
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 96
    100
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 95
    192
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 94
    104
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 3·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1/VegasLAD -143

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 4–1.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 10.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Hyeseong Kim

Hyeseong Kim

SS

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Masyn Winn

Masyn Winn

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD21-13
4
1
STL20-14
LAD21-13·STL20-14
LAD

LAD

21-13

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-33000010
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-55021002
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44010011
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-55110000
SPRINT26.123
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33110010
SPRINT27.354
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
1-33010001
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44111000
SPRINT28.175
H. KimH. Kim★SS
2-22121000
SPRINT28.381
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-33000001
M. RojasM. RojasSS
0-11000010
A. CallA. CallLF
1-11011000
Team10-34344104045
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. WrobleskiJ. Wrobleski★SP
6.0600100
W. KleinW. KleinRP
1.2111100
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.1000000
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000020
Team9.0711220
STL

STL

20-14

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-33000010
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
0-33100010
SPRINT28.891
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-44011000
SPRINT25.513
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT2872
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
1-44010001
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.586
P. PagesP. Pages★C
0-44000001
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
0-22000000
N. GormanN. Gorman3B
0-11000000
Team7-3333171022
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MayD. May★SP
6.0733230
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
1.0000120
J. ShusterJ. ShusterRP
2.0310100
Team9.01043450

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • J. Wrobleski
    83 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.2 mph·5% whiff
    • SL
      40%·85.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      11%·73.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Klein
    25 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      64%·98.1 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      20%·89.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      16%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Scott
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      62%·89.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.8 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·93.7 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • D. May
    95 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      25%·93.3 mph·21% whiff
    • FF
      24%·96.7 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      17%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Shuster
    23 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      48%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·93.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      44%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      38%·89.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      13%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      6%·87.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

7

4

Runs

1

1

Errors

1

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

May 2LADLAD2@STLSTL7
May 2LADLAD2@STLSTL3
May 3LADLAD4@STLSTL1today

Season series

STL leads series 2-1

May 2LADLAD2@STLSTL7
May 2LADLAD2@STLSTL3
May 3LADLAD4@STLSTL1today
Sep 2STLSTL@LADLADupcoming
Sep 3STLSTL@LADLADupcoming
Sep 4STLSTL@LADLADupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-14359%
STLSTL+11946%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 82 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

10.0

+1.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 2nd Inning

LADLAD
H. Kim

H. Kim

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Wrobleski

J. Wrobleski

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 0 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

STLSTL
M. Winn

M. Winn

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

D. May

D. May

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat STL 4-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 63% WP

Herrera · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Wetherholt out at second.

LADTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 79% WP

Pages · doubled to left, Tucker scored, Muncy to third.

LADTop 5th Inning · 3-0
+7pp→ 87% WP

Freeman · singled to center, Kim scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0200100014
STL0000000101

Period scoring

LAD won 3 · STL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Pages 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Burleson 1

1
0

Inn 9

Call 1

LAD
STL

Play-by-play · 537 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 4·STL 1

  2. B9

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  3. B9

    Pagés struck out looking.

    · ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  7. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Pedro Pages

    · ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  8. B9

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  9. B9

    Church lined out to right.

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

    −1pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  15. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Nathan Church

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  16. B9

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  17. B9

    Fermín struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

    −2pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  23. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Jose Fermin

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  24. B9

    Scott relieved Treinen

    ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  25. B9

    Espinal at second base.

    LAD 4·STL 1

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 4·STL 1

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 4·STL 1

  28. T9

    · ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

  29. T9

    Tucker lined out to center.

    · ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

    +0.9pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 4·STL 1

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

STL

Home

4

Runs

1

10

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

13

TB

7

0

HR

0

4

BB

2

5

K

2

22

LOB

8

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 10·LAD -143/STL +119

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

STL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    43.7%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.6%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.4%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.