Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — May 2, 2026

FINAL+1STL

LAD

20-13

STL

20-13

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

34,323 attended

Line movement

108 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

STL no-vig %

45.8%

open 42.8% · +2.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.7%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
45.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.7%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.3%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.92

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+123

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

STL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.7± 3.9low
Roki SasakiLAD
5.5± 3.1low

Hits

Tommy EdmanLAD
1.3± 2.0low
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.3± 1.4high
Mookie BettsLAD
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.2± 1.7high
JJ WetherholtSTL
2.1± 3.0high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 0.6high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.5low
Kyle TuckerLAD
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.0± 1.9medium
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

STL

.778

OPS

◀

.719

.731

.343

OBP

◀

.319

.329

5.14

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.63

3.43

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.26

1.10

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.34

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

LAD 2 · STL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
STL	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
F. Freeman1B	.266	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. SmithC	.263	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. TuckerRF	.238	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. HernándezLF	.250	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
M. Muncy3B	.299	3	0	2	1	0	1	1
A. PagesCF	.319	3	0	1	1	0	1	2
H. KimSS	.293	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Freeland2B	.241	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. CallLF	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Espinal3B	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. RushingC	.340	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. RojasSS	.306	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	2	8	2	0	4	8

Player

.252

.266

.263

.238

.250

.299

.319

.293

.241

.300

.200

.340

.306

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SasakiSP	6.0	5	3	3	2	4	104
A. VesiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
J. EderRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
Team	8.0	6	3	3	3	5	135

Player

R. SasakiSP

6.0

104

A. VesiaRP

1.0

J. EderRP

1.0

Team

8.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. HerreraDH	.248	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
A. Burleson1B	.280	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
J. WalkerRF	.315	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
N. Gorman3B	.216	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. WinnSS	.264	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.237	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Urias3B	.164	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Scott IICF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		30	3	6	3	1	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McGreevySP	6.0	3	0	0	3	3	88
R. StanekRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	22
J. RomeroRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	4	2	2	0	2	26
Team	9.0	8	2	2	4	8	153

Team

LAD

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

STL vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.