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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5MIN
MIN

MIN

70-91

5
0
PHI

PHI

95-66

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
40,506 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 5 · PHI 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +21pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN1001102005
PHI0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Player projections

PHI vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

77.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    71.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    75.1%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    70.9%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 26, 25sim 98
    91
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 94
    43
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 94
    91
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 94
    42
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 91
    41
    10(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 89
    202
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 27·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 5–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Ryan Fitzgerald

Ryan Fitzgerald

3B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Alec Bohm

Alec Bohm

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN70-91
5
0
PHI95-66
MIN70-91·PHI95-66
MIN

MIN

70-91

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
2-55121102
SPRINT29.597
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
2-44120010
SPRINT27.867
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
2-44021001
SPRINT26.326
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44010002
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44110002
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010001
CC. McCusker★LF
0-33001001
R. FitzgeraldR. Fitzgerald★3B
1-33111110
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
1-44111101
SPRINT27.251
D. Keirsey Jr.D. Keirsey Jr.CF
0-11000001
Team11-363651153211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. AbelM. Abel★SP
6.0300190
P. OhlP. OhlRP
2.0200030
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
1.0200010
Team9.07001130
PHI

PHI

95-66

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-44000003
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000002
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-33010012
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT26.632
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT28.175
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-44010001
SPRINT28.381
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.148
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33010001
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-33000000
O. KempO. KempLF
0-11000000
Team7-33330700113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
4.1933042
M. LazarM. LazarRP
2.1222131
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
0.1000010
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
1.0000020
L. TrivinoL. TrivinoRP
1.0000110
Team9.011552113

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • M. Abel
    73 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      30%·97.5 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      26%·89.4 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      16%·83.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      12%·87.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.9 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      4%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    31 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      48%·92.7 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      23%·92.0 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      19%·81.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Ohl
    22 pitches·59% CSW
    • CH
      41%·82.0 mph·71% whiff
    • FF
      41%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • KN
      5%·80.8 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • R. Suarez
    84 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      31%·90.2 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      23%·91.6 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      18%·80.1 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      12%·79.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      10%·74.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      7%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Lazar
    40 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      60%·94.7 mph·22% whiff
    • KC
      23%·82.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      15%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      3%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • L. Trivino
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      47%·87.6 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·91.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Mayza
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      58%·92.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.8 mph·— whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      50%·87.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

5

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Sep 26MINMIN1@PHIPHI3
Sep 27MINMIN5@PHIPHI0today
Sep 28MINMIN1@PHIPHI2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Sep 26MINMIN1@PHIPHI3
Sep 27MINMIN5@PHIPHI0today
Sep 28MINMIN1@PHIPHI2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 5th Inning

MINMIN
R. Fitzgerald

R. Fitzgerald

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

M. Abel

M. Abel

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
A. Bohm

A. Bohm

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 9 H

How it ended

MIN beat PHI 5-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 67% WP

Martin · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Buxton out at second.

MINTop 5th Inning · 3-0
+13pp→ 73% WP

Outman · homered to center (436 feet).

MINBottom 5th Inning · 3-0
+8pp→ 79% WP

Sosa · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Stott out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN1001102005
PHI0000000000

Period scoring

MIN won 4 · PHI won 0

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

McCusker 1

1
0

Inn 5

Outman 1

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Fitzgerald 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIN
PHI

Play-by-play · 547 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  3. B9

    Castellanos struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  12. B9

    Kody Funderburk pitches to Nick Castellanos

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  13. B9

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  14. B9

    Realmuto singled to left, Harper to second.

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  19. B9

    Kody Funderburk pitches to J.T. Realmuto

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  20. B9

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  21. B9

    Kemp flied out to right.

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 5·PHI 0

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

5

Runs

0

11

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

22

TB

7

3

HR

0

2

BB

1

11

K

13

13

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175