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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2WSH
WSH

WSH

6-8

3
1
MIL

MIL

8-6

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
36,442 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIL no-vig %

61.6%

open 61.6%

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL65.6%57.6%MIL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 3 · MIL 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000200013
MIL0000000011

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-181

Close price

-181

Open no-vig

61.6%

Close no-vig

61.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Apr 11·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 3-0/VegasMIL -181

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 3–1.

WSH +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Nasim Nunez

Nasim Nunez

2B

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
William Contreras

William Contreras

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH6-8
3
1
MIL8-6
WSH6-8·MIL8-6
WSH

WSH

6-8

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-33012011
SPRINT27.457
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
0-33000020
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-44000001
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT29.395
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
0-44000003
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44010000
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
2-44120000
SPRINT29.496
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
3-33230010
SPRINT29.899
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
1-33011010
SPRINT25.411
Team9-3232393055
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. GriffinF. Griffin★SP
5.1100310
B. LordB. LordRP
1.2000130
C. PerezC. PerezRP
1.0000010
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0111221
Team9.0211671
MIL

MIL

8-6

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-33000011
SPRINT28.586
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.148
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44111100
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-22000021
SPRINT27.148
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
0-11000010
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
0-33000011
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-44000002
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-22000000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT28.790
J. BauersJ. Bauers1B
0-22000000
G. MitchellG. MitchellCF
0-11000011
Team2-3030121167
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HarrisonK. Harrison★SP
4.1522110
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
0.2000010
B. SproatB. SproatSP
3.2411330
D. HallD. HallRP
0.1000100
Team9.0933550

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • F. Griffin
    80 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      38%·87.7 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      18%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·77.9 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      11%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      58%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      42%·86.9 mph·25% whiff
  • B. Lord
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      38%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      19%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Perez
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • CU
      43%·84.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.4 mph·— whiff
    • SV
      14%·83.1 mph·— whiff

MIL

  • K. Harrison
    76 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      54%·94.6 mph·15% whiff
    • SV
      25%·82.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.0 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Sproat
    65 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      35%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·93.3 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      17%·82.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      14%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      33%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·83.6 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      22%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.0 mph·— whiff
  • G. Anderson
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      50%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·93.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

2

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

2

Current series

WSH wins series 3-0

Apr 10WSHWSH7@MILMIL3
Apr 11WSHWSH3@MILMIL1today
Apr 12WSHWSH8@MILMIL6

Season series

WSH leads series 2-0

Apr 10WSHWSH7@MILMIL3
Apr 11WSHWSH3@MILMIL1today
Apr 12WSHWSH8@MILMIL6
May 1MILMIL6@WSHWSH1
May 2MILMIL4@WSHWSH1
May 3MILMIL2@WSHWSH3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+14940%
MILMIL-18164%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 5th Inning

WSHWSH
N. Nunez

N. Nunez

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

F. Griffin

F. Griffin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 1 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

MILMIL
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

B. Sproat

B. Sproat

SP

Top reliever

3.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

WSH beat MIL 3-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIL vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 5th Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 65% WP

Wood · doubled to left, Nuñez scored and Young scored.

WSHBottom 6th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 74% WP

Bauers · grounded out to second.

WSHBottom 9th Inning · 3-1
+14pp→ 100% WP

Ortiz · grounded out to pitcher.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000200013
MIL0000000011

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · MIL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Wood 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
1

Inn 9

Ruiz 1

Contreras 1

WSH
MIL

Play-by-play · 578 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  3. B9

    Ortiz grounded out to pitcher.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

    −14pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  7. B9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Joey Ortiz

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  8. B9

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  9. B9

    Mitchell intentionally walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

    +6pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  11. B9

    Lockridge to second on wild pitch by Beeter, Yelich to third on wild pitch by Beeter.

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  12. B9

    Lockridge to second on wild pitch by Beeter, Yelich to third on wild pitch by Beeter.

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  17. B9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Garrett Mitchell

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  18. B9

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  19. B9

    Frelick struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

    −11pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  25. B9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Sal Frelick

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  26. B9

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  27. B9

    Lockridge walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

    +7pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIL 1

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

3

Runs

1

9

Hits

2

0

Errors

2

12

TB

5

0

HR

1

5

BB

6

5

K

7

16

LOB

16

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8·WSH +149/MIL -181

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891

Player projections

MIL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.3± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    66.3%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    68.8%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.8%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 96
    41
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 91
    211
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 91
    37
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 91
    261
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 91
    32
    16(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 90
    181
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs