MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2PHI

MIN

69-91

PHI

95-65

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

40,073 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

72.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
70.9%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
67.8%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
70.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.4medium
Joe RyanMIN
6.3± 2.9medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.0± 3.3low

Hits

Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.2± 1.3high
Kody ClemensMIN
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.9± 2.8high
Kody ClemensMIN
2.4± 2.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.1high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.7± 0.9high
Josh BellMIN
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.7± 2.9low
Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

PHI

.718

OPS

◀

.717

.681

.318

OBP

◀

.319

.296

4.63

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

4.86

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.11

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

MIN 1 · PHI 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +21pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
PHI	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Clemens1B	.219	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. JeffersC	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. LarnachLF	.249	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. LeeSS	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Julien2B	.220	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. Lewis3B	.239	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.149	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. VazquezC	.194	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
D. Keirsey Jr.CF	.108	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	4	1	1	0	11

Player

.263

.219

.259

.249

.235

.220

.239

.149

.194

.108

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RyanSP	5.0	4	2	1	1	9	90
T. AdamsRP	1.1	2	1	1	1	1	30
G. CabreraRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	12
M. TonkinRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
Team	8.0	7	3	2	2	12	143

Player

5.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

Team

8.0

143

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BaderCF	.312	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.243	4	1	0	0	0	0	3
B. Harper1B	.263	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. Bohm3B	.285	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.281	4	0	1	1	0	0	3
J.T. RealmutoC	.257	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. CastellanosRF	.252	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Stott2B	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Sosa2B	.279	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
Team		31	3	7	3	1	2	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NolaSP	8.0	2	1	1	0	9	90
J. DuranRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	23
Team	9.0	4	1	1	0	11	113

Team

MIN

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.