MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3HOU

HOU

23-31

CHC

29-24

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

40,048 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 0.0 · +7.5

CHC no-vig %

60.3%

open 60.0% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.8%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
54.5%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.5%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.3%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.48

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+148

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

38.5%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.7pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

HOU

★ best

+139DraftKings

edge +5.7pp · implied 40.0%

CHC

no live price

Book	HOU	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	+139★	-168	+5.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Peter LambertHOU
5.3± 2.5low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.2± 2.5low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.4high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.4± 1.0high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.1± 3.7high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Christian WalkerHOU
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.9± 2.2high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.7± 1.2high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.6low
Colin ReaCHC
3.3± 2.3medium
Edward CabreraCHC
3.2± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

CHC

.730

OPS

.717

.726

.318

OBP

.319

▶

.332

4.54

Runs / G

4.50

4.58

4.95

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.22

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 8 · CHC 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	1	8
CHC	0	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. MatthewsCF	.200	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. PenaSS	.239	4	1	1	2	0	0	3
C. Walker1B	.265	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
I. Paredes3B	.251	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. MeyersCF	.231	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. SmithRF	.211	3	2	1	0	0	1	1
Z. DezenzoLF	.211	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
C. VazquezC	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. AllenSS	.297	3	2	3	2	1	0	0
B. ShewmakeSS	.267	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	8	9	8	3	2	8

Player

.200

.239

.265

.251

.231

.211

.211

.247

.297

.267

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. LambertSP	5.0	5	3	3	4	5	103
A. BlubaughRP	2.0	1	2	2	1	0	29
B. AbreuRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	15
N. PearsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	20
Team	9.0	7	5	5	7	5	167

Player

P. LambertSP

5.0

103

A. BlubaughRP

2.0

B. AbreuRP

1.0

N. PearsonRP

1.0

Team

9.0

167

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.228	1	1	0	1	0	3	0
N. Hoerner2B	.255	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. Busch1B	.230	4	1	2	2	1	1	0
A. Bregman3B	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. ConfortoDH	.284	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. SuzukiRF	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. BallesterosDH	.235	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
C. KellyC	.296	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
P. Ramirez2B	.250	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
K. AlcantaraDH	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. AmayaC	.240	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	5	7	5	1	7	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ImanagaSP	6.0	7	7	7	1	6	94
E. RobertsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
P. MatonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
C. ThielbarRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	13
Team	9.0	9	8	8	2	8	136

Team

HOU

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHC vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.