MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2PHI

PHI

22-23

119

PIT

24-21

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

29,998 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PIT no-vig %

54.3%

open 55.1% · -0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
43.9%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.1%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.9pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

PHI

★ best

+113DraftKings

edge +12.9pp · implied 44.9%

PIT

no live price

Book	PHI	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	+113★	-136	+12.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PIT vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.4medium
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.8medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.9low

Hits

Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.2± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.1± 1.1high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Brandon MarshPHI
2.1± 2.3high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.8± 1.8high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
0.6± 0.8high
Bryson StottPHI
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.7± 2.9low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low
Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

PIT

.690

OPS

.717

▶

.736

.299

OBP

.319

▶

.334

4.11

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.95

4.01

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.26

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

9.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 11 · PIT 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
PHI	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	3	3	11
PIT	0	0	6	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	9

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.231	6	2	1	0	0	0	2
K. SchwarberDH	.237	5	2	3	5	2	1	1
B. Harper1B	.282	5	1	4	2	0	0	0
A. Bohm3B	.195	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.336	5	1	1	1	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.222	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
E. Sosa2B	.236	4	1	0	0	0	0	2
J. CrawfordCF	.276	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
G. StubbsC	.235	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
R. MarchanC	.091	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
A. GarciaRF	.220	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
Team		42	11	14	11	2	2	7

Player

.231

.237

.282

.195

.336

.222

.236

.276

.235

.091

.220

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NolaSP	3.2	6	6	6	3	2	80
T. MayzaRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	17
J. BowlanRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	2	21
C. ShugartRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	35
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	22
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	0	1	0	1	1	18
Team	10.0	11	9	7	4	11	193

Player

3.2

1.1

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

193

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. CruzCF	.265	4	1	2	2	0	1	2
B. Lowe2B	.252	5	2	2	3	2	0	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.253	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. O'HearnRF	.291	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. OzunaDH	.188	4	1	1	2	1	1	2
S. Horwitz1B	.274	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
K. GriffinSS	.254	5	1	1	1	0	0	1
E. RodriguezC	.286	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
J. TrioloSS	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. CookRF	.190	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Gonzales3B	.313	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	9	11	8	3	4	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. AshcraftSP	6.2	7	4	4	0	5	100
M. MontgomeryRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	15
G. SotoRP	1.0	2	3	2	2	0	30
D. SantanaRP	0.0	4	3	2	0	0	18
B. BidoisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
Team	10.0	14	11	9	2	7	180

Team

PHI

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PIT vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.