• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBMid 7
    MIN 7@PIT 8
    +34.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    KC 4@TEX 3
    -50.7ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 7
    BOS 2@CLE 1
    -52.7ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 4@WSH 7
    +51.1pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    TOR 4@BAL 1
    -48.8pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    LAA 7@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    MIA 1@NYM 5
    +49.6pplow
  • MLBEnd 6
    MIL 2@HOU 6
    +58.9pplow
  • WNBA23.9 - 1st
    LA 16@CON 20
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+7KC
KC

KC

82-80

9
2
ATH

ATH

76-86

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
8,754 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 9 · ATH 2 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0102104109
ATH0000000202

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 27, 25sim 98
    294
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 95
    73
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 95
    187
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 94
    284
    5(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 94
    156
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 94
    181
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 28·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into Athletics and beat them, 9–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Mike Yastrzemski

Mike Yastrzemski

LF

2.600OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC82-80
9
2
ATH76-86
KC82-80·ATH76-86
KC

KC

82-80

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-33122010
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-55012000
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-55010002
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000010
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
2-44222210
SPRINT2744
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
3-55331102
SPRINT27.457
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
2-55120001
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
4-55241000
SPRINT26.838
JJ. Rave★RF
0-44000012
J. IndiaJ. India2B
0-11000000
J. CaglianoneJ. CaglianoneRF
0-11000001
Team15-42429158348
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RagansC. Ragans★SP
4.1200180
S. CruzS. CruzRP
0.1200010
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
2.1000030
S. LongS. LongRP
1.0222101
L. AvilaL. AvilaRP
1.0100120
Team9.07223141
ATH

ATH

76-86

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. ThomasC. Thomas★RF
1-55110003
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-44112102
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-00000010
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-22000001
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-44000001
B. HarrisB. Harris★3B
1-33010012
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.457
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-44010003
W. MacIverW. MacIver★C
1-44010002
C. CortesC. CortesRF
1-33010000
SPRINT25.716
M. SchuemannM. SchuemannSS
0-11000010
Team7-34342721314
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
BB. Basso★RP
1.1311200
T. FergusonT. FergusonRP
0.2000000
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
1.0000120
M. SpenceM. SpenceRP
3.0733010
M. KellyM. KellyRP
0.1232012
O. BidoO. BidoRP
1.2222121
S. McGoughS. McGoughRP
1.0100020
Team9.01597483

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • C. Ragans
    72 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.2 mph·32% whiff
    • CH
      22%·84.0 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      8%·79.5 mph·— whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    30 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      33%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.5 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      7%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Long
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • CU
      39%·77.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      6%·81.2 mph·— whiff
  • L. Avila
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      35%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·83.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      12%·95.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Cruz
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      67%·97.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      20%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·88.3 mph·— whiff

ATH

  • M. Spence
    47 pitches·23% CSW
    • CU
      32%·81.5 mph·44% whiff
    • FC
      32%·90.3 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      28%·92.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      9%·83.0 mph·— whiff
  • O. Bido
    28 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·84.3 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      11%·88.5 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      11%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Basso
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      70%·92.0 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      17%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·77.0 mph·0% whiff
  • S. McGough
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FS
      47%·83.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      37%·91.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Alvarado
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      72%·97.7 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Kelly
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      35%·82.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·89.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      18%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Ferguson
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      75%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·82.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

7

9

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Sep 27KCKC3@ATHATH4
Sep 28KCKC4@ATHATH2
Sep 28KCKC9@ATHATH2today

Season series

ATH wins series 4-2

Jun 14ATHATH6@KCKC4
Jun 14ATHATH4@KCKC0
Jun 15ATHATH3@KCKC2
Sep 27KCKC3@ATHATH4
Sep 28KCKC4@ATHATH2
Sep 28KCKC9@ATHATH2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 4th Inning

KCKC
M. Yastrzemski

M. Yastrzemski

LF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.600 OPS

C. Ragans

C. Ragans

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

ATHATH
N. Kurtz

N. Kurtz

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

M. Spence

M. Spence

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 7 H

How it ended

KC beat ATH 9-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+14pp→ 80% WP

Massey · singled to right, Frazier scored on fielding error by right fielder Bleday, Massey to third.

KCBottom 5th Inning · 4-0
+7pp→ 87% WP

Thomas · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0102104109
ATH0000000202

Period scoring

KC won 4 · ATH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Garcia 1

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Massey 1

1
0

Inn 5

Massey 1

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Jr. 2

1
2

Inn 8

Yastrzemski 1

Kurtz 2

0
0

Inn 9

KC
ATH

Play-by-play · 621 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 9·ATH 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  3. B9

    Thomas flied out to center.

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  6. B9

    Luinder Avila pitches to Colby Thomas

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  7. B9

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  8. B9

    MacIver struck out swinging.

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  14. B9

    Luinder Avila pitches to Willie MacIver

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  15. B9

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  16. B9

    Muncy struck out swinging.

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

    −0.5pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  20. B9

    Luinder Avila pitches to Max Muncy

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  21. B9

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  22. B9

    Bleday doubled to right, B. Harris to third.

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

    +0.5pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  26. B9

    Luinder Avila pitches to JJ Bleday

    · ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  27. B9

    ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  28. B9

    B. Harris walked.

    ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 9·ATH 2

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

9

Runs

2

15

Hits

7

0

Errors

2

28

TB

12

3

HR

1

4

BB

3

8

K

14

19

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 12 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+

Player projections

ATH vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.5± 1.0high
  • Jonah HeimATH
    0.5± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    53.7%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.5%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.3%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.