HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBEnd 6
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -6.5pppeak
  • MLBTop 9
    DET 2@CLE 3
    +39.0pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -48.3pplow
  • MLBTop 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA1:51 - 4th
    TOR 76@WSH 81
    +27.6pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ATH
KC

KC

80-80

3
4
ATH

ATH

76-84

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
10,543 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

KC

KC

league avg

ATH

ATH

.692

OPS

.715

▶

.735

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.326

3.86

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.38

4.49

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.62

1.39

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.42

8.3

K / 9

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

KC 3 · ATH 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0003000003
ATH0000300014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 26·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Athletics held off Kansas City Royals, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1S. LangeliersATH+78.4pp
  2. 2M. SchuemannATH+44.2pp
  3. 3L. AvilaKC−43.6pp

KC · top performer

KC
Jonathan India

Jonathan India

2B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Tyler Soderstrom

Tyler Soderstrom

LF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiLF
.2233000011
B. Witt Jr.SS
.2954010001
V. Pasquantino1B
.2654000000
M. Garcia3B
.2864110001
S. PerezC
.2394000001
C. JensenC
.2833110010
J. India2B
.2343113102
A. Frazier2B
.2783000000
J. CaglianoneRF
.1583000001
- J. RaveRF
.2050000000
Team31343127

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
N. CameronSP
4.24334696
T. ClarkeRP
1.12000121
J. BowlanRP
1.00000110
A. ZerpaRP
1.10000113
L. AvilaRP
0.12110010
Team8.284449150

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. LangeliersC
.2735121001
N. Kurtz1B
.2914000001
B. RookerDH
.2633110012
T. SoderstromLF
.2792110020
J. WilsonSS
.3134013000
C. ThomasRF
.2262000001
L. ButlerRF
.2354010001
D. HernaizSS
.2364020001
B. Harris3B
.2713000011
- C. CortesRF
.3101000001
- M. Muncy3B
.2131000000
- J. BledayLF
.2120000000
- M. SchuemannSS
.2000100000
Team33484049

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. BarnettSP
5.23332397
H. HarrisRP
2.00000222
J. SternerRP
1.11000225
Team9.043327144

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • A. Zerpa
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • SI
      64%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      50%·83.8 mph·0% whiff

ATH

  • H. Harris
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·74.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

8

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Sep 27KCKC3@ATHATH4today
Sep 28KCKC4@ATHATH2
Sep 28KCKC9@ATHATH2

Season series

ATH leads series 4-0

Jun 14ATHATH6@KCKC4
Jun 14ATHATH4@KCKC0
Jun 15ATHATH3@KCKC2
Sep 27KCKC3@ATHATH4today
Sep 28KCKC4@ATHATH2
Sep 28KCKC9@ATHATH2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 44pp · Bottom 9th Inning

KCKC
J. India

J. India

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

ATHATH
T. Soderstrom

T. Soderstrom

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

M. Barnett

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATH beat KC 4-3. Langeliers's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (44pp).

Win probability

ATH vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+28pp→ 84% WP

India · homered to left (358 feet), Garcia scored and Jensen scored.

ATHBottom 5th Inning · 3-3
+31pp→ 50% WP

Wilson · doubled to left, Langeliers scored, Soderstrom scored and Rooker scored.

ATHBottom 9th Inning · 3-4
+44pp→ 100% WP

Langeliers · doubled to center, Schuemann scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0003000003
ATH0000300014

Period scoring

KC won 1 · ATH won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
0

Inn 4

India 3

0
3

Inn 5

Wilson 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Langeliers 1

KC
ATH

Play-by-play · 559 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 4

  2. B9

    Langeliers doubled to center, Schuemann scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 3·ATH 4

    +44pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 3·ATH 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  5. B9

    Luinder Avila pitches to Shea Langeliers

    · ·

    KC 3·ATH 4

  6. B9

    Schuemann ran for B. Harris

    · ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  7. B9

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  8. B9

    B. Harris grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Hernaiz out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

    −6pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  15. B9

    Luinder Avila pitches to Brett Harris

    · ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  16. B9

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  17. B9

    Hernaiz singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

    +6pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  20. B9

    Luinder Avila pitches to Darell Hernaiz

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  21. B9

    Avila relieved Zerpa

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  22. B9

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  23. B9

    Butler struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

    −5pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 3·ATH 3

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

3

Runs

4

4

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

7

TB

11

1

HR

0

2

BB

4

7

K

9

7

LOB

10

Player projections

ATH vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Noah CameronKC
    5.3± 2.5low
  • J.T. GinnATH
    5.0± 2.9medium
  • Michael WachaKC
    4.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    1.4± 1.3high
  • Jacob WilsonATH
    1.2± 0.6high
  • Shea LangeliersATH
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Shea LangeliersATH
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Jonah HeimATH
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    3.2± 2.4low
  • Michael WachaKC
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.5± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.9%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    53.9%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.4%

    P(ATH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.9%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586