MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5HOU

HOU

70-58

BAL

59-68

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

18,061 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.5%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
53.5%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.7%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.1%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.7± 2.5low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.6± 3.0low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.4± 3.3low

Hits

Leody TaverasBAL
1.1± 0.8high
Taylor TrammellHOU
1.1± 0.8low
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.3± 3.5high
Christian WalkerHOU
2.0± 2.9high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

Christian WalkerHOU
0.9± 1.4high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 1.3high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.8low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.4± 2.8low
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 7 · BAL 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Pena★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Correa★SS	2-5	5	1	2	2	0	0	2
SPRINT27.251
J. Altuve★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Walker★1B	2-5	5	2	2	2	1	0	0
SPRINT25.920
J. Sanchez★RF	5-5	5	1	5	1	0	0	0
SPRINT25.818
Y. Diaz★C	1-5	5	1	1	2	1	0	0
SPRINT25.513
V. Caratini★C	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT24.22
M. Dubon★SS	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Melton★LF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team	12-39	39	7	12	7	2	3	2

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-4

2-5

0-4

2-5

5-5

1-5

2-4

0-4

0-3

Team

12-39

	Pitching
J. Alexander★RP	5.1	8	2	2	1	3	1
S. OkertRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0
K. OrtRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0
B. KingRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0
Team	9.0	9	2	2	3	7	1

Pitching

Player

5.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
J. Holliday★2B	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Jackson★2B	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.530
G. Henderson★SS	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.175
R. Mountcastle★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Cowser★CF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.175
S. Basallo★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Mayo★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. Beavers★RF	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
SPRINT29.194
D. Carlson★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
Team	9-36	36	2	9	2	1	3	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI