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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SD
ARI

ARI

80-80

4
7
SD

SD

88-72

Petco Park · San Diego, California
44,547 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

ARI 4 · SD 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI1010000204
SD000510017

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 66-47
61%Last 30 · 329-206
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 98
    79
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 96
    57
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 94
    212
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 94
    134
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 94
    73
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 94
    1811
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 26·Final/SeriesSD wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 7–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Jake McCarthy

Jake McCarthy

LF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

2B

1.600OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI80-80
4
7
SD88-72
ARI80-80·SD88-72
ARI

ARI

80-80

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
2-44020010
SPRINT26.838
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-44211112
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-33000021
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
1-55010002
SPRINT26.428
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-33100011
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
1-33010002
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-22000001
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
2-33021010
SPRINT26.941
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
1-22111100
SPRINT29.698
T. TawaT. TawaLF
0-11001010
J. LawlarJ. LawlarLF
0-11000001
J. BarrosaJ. BarrosaCF
0-11000001
Team8-32324842811
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
4.1765331
P. AbnerP. AbnerRP
0.2000110
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.0100020
A. SaalfrankA. SaalfrankRP
1.0100100
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.0311020
Team8.01276581
SD

SD

88-72

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-55114103
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
4-55140000
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44110011
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-55011001
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
2-55120000
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT26.735
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-22111021
SPRINT26.735
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-33001011
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-33100011
Team12-36367127158
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. DarvishY. Darvish★SP
5.0622242
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
1.0100020
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.0100010
K. HartK. HartRP
0.1022210
D. MorganD. MorganRP
0.1000300
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.1000130
Team9.08448112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SD

  • M. Miller
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      41%·100.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      41%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·93.5 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

12

4

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 5-2

Jul 8ARIARI6@SDSD3
Jul 9ARIARI0@SDSD1
Jul 10ARIARI8@SDSD2
Jul 11ARIARI3@SDSD4
Sep 27ARIARI4@SDSD7today
Sep 28ARIARI1@SDSD5
Sep 28ARIARI4@SDSD12

Season series

SD leads series 6-5

Jun 14SDSD1@ARIARI5
Jun 14SDSD7@ARIARI8
Jun 15SDSD8@ARIARI2
Jul 8ARIARI6@SDSD3
Jul 9ARIARI0@SDSD1
Jul 10ARIARI8@SDSD2
Jul 11ARIARI3@SDSD4
Aug 5SDSD2@ARIARI6
Aug 6SDSD10@ARIARI5
Aug 7SDSD3@ARIARI2
Sep 27ARIARI4@SDSD7today
Sep 28ARIARI1@SDSD5
Sep 28ARIARI4@SDSD12

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 37pp · Bottom 4th Inning

ARIARI
J. McCarthy

J. McCarthy

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

SDSD
L. Arraez

L. Arraez

2B

Batter of the game

4-for-5 · 1 R · 1.600 OPS

Y. Darvish

Y. Darvish

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SD beat ARI 7-4. Tatis Jr.'s play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Win probability

SD vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 68% WP

McCarthy · homered to right (423 feet).

SDBottom 4th Inning · 2-1
+16pp→ 54% WP

O'Hearn · singled to right, Bogaerts scored, Sheets to third.

SDBottom 4th Inning · 2-5
+37pp→ 88% WP

Tatis Jr. · homered to left center (409 feet), Sheets scored, O'Hearn scored and Fermin scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI1010000204
SD00051001—7

Period scoring

ARI won 3 · SD won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Marte 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

McCarthy 1

0
5

Inn 4

Jr. 4

0
1

Inn 5

Cronenworth 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
1

Inn 8

Tawa 1

Merrill 1

0

Inn 9

ARI
SD

Play-by-play · 653 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  2. T9

    Moreno popped out to first.

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  6. T9

    Perdomo to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  7. T9

    Perdomo to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  9. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Gabriel Moreno

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  10. T9

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  11. T9

    Carroll struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

    +3pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  18. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Corbin Carroll

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  19. T9

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  20. T9

    Marte struck out looking.

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

    +3pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  25. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Ketel Marte

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  26. T9

    ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  27. T9

    Perdomo walked.

    ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

    −4pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 4·SD 7

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

SD

Home

4

Runs

7

8

Hits

12

1

Errors

0

16

TB

16

2

HR

1

8

BB

5

11

K

8

20

LOB

20

Player projections

SD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.6%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    54.5%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.9%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175