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Live · 8
  • MLBBot 5
    MIN 7@PIT 7
    +3.5pphigh
  • MLBTop 6
    BOS 1@CLE 1
    -11.7pppeak
  • MLBEnd 6
    TOR 2@BAL 1
    -38.3ppmedium
  • MLBTop 5
    MIL 2@HOU 3
    +35.9pphigh
  • MLBBot 7
    SD 3@WSH 1
    -46.2pplow
  • MLBEnd 6
    KC 0@TEX 3
    +41.3pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    LAA 6@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    MIA 0@NYM 3
    +49.5pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7ATH
LAA

LAA

59-63

3
10
ATH

ATH

55-69

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
8,484 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

LAA 3 · ATH 10 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0100200003
ATH1030200410

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 15·Final/SeriesLAA win series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Athletics held off Los Angeles Angels, 10–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Zach Neto

Zach Neto

SS

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Colby Thomas

Colby Thomas

RF

3.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA59-63
3
10
ATH55-69
LAA59-63·ATH55-69
LAA

LAA

59-63

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44112100
SPRINT27.148
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-44000002
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-22000021
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.457
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
2-44120001
SPRINT26.735
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000001
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
1-33011002
SPRINT257
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
0-33000011
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-33100012
SPRINT29.395
O. PerazaO. Peraza2B
0-11000001
Team5-32323531413
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. KikuchiY. Kikuchi★SP
4.0544332
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
0.2322110
C. FulmerC. FulmerRP
3.1644021
Team8.0141010463
ATH

ATH

55-69

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
2-55222101
SPRINT28.586
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
2-55120000
SPRINT27.148
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
3-55333101
SPRINT26.632
C. ThomasC. Thomas★RF
3-33233100
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
1-33011010
SPRINT27.969
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
0-44000012
W. MacIverW. MacIver★C
1-33010011
B. HarrisB. Harris★3B
1-33110011
L. UriasL. Urias★2B
0-22000000
L. ButlerL. ButlerRF
0-22000000
T. SoderstromT. SoderstromLF
1-11011000
Team14-3636101410346
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. PerkinsJ. Perkins★RP
5.0533371
M. KellyM. KellyRP
1.0000120
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.0000000
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
1.0000020
B. BowdenB. BowdenRP
1.0000020
Team9.05334131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • C. Brogdon
    29 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      48%·94.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      28%·82.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      24%·85.8 mph·0% whiff

ATH

  • J. Sterner
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      62%·92.8 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      38%·87.4 mph·20% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

14

3

Runs

10

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAA win series 5-2

May 20LAALAA4@ATHATH3
May 21LAALAA7@ATHATH5
May 22LAALAA10@ATHATH5
May 22LAALAA10@ATHATH5
Aug 16LAALAA3@ATHATH10today
Aug 17LAALAA2@ATHATH7
Aug 17LAALAA11@ATHATH5

Season series

LAA lead series 7-1

May 20LAALAA4@ATHATH3
May 21LAALAA7@ATHATH5
May 22LAALAA10@ATHATH5
May 22LAALAA10@ATHATH5
Jun 10ATHATH4@LAALAA7
Jun 11ATHATH1@LAALAA2
Jun 11ATHATH5@LAALAA6
Aug 16LAALAA3@ATHATH10today
Aug 17LAALAA2@ATHATH7
Aug 17LAALAA11@ATHATH5
Sep 6ATHATH10@LAALAA4
Sep 7ATHATH17@LAALAA4
Sep 7ATHATH3@LAALAA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

LAALAA
Z. Neto

Z. Neto

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

Y. Kikuchi

Y. Kikuchi

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

ATHATH
C. Thomas

C. Thomas

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

J. Perkins

J. Perkins

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATH beat LAA 10-3. Thomas's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

ATH vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 2nd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 64% WP

d'Arnaud doubled to right, Moncada scored.

ATHBottom 3rd Inning · 1-4
+19pp→ 78% WP

Thomas · homered to left center (433 feet), Rooker scored and Kurtz scored.

LAATop 5th Inning · 3-4
+19pp→ 44% WP

Neto · homered to left (434 feet), Teodosio scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0100200003
ATH10302004—10

Period scoring

LAA won 1 · ATH won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Langeliers 1

1
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Thomas 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
2

Inn 5

Neto 2

Hernaiz 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
4

Inn 8

Kurtz 3

0

Inn 9

LAA
ATH

Play-by-play · 632 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  2. T9

    Teodosio struck out looking.

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  7. T9

    Ben Bowden pitches to Bryce Teodosio

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  8. T9

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  9. T9

    Moore grounded out to third.

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  15. T9

    Ben Bowden pitches to Christian Moore

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  16. T9

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  17. T9

    Peraza struck out looking.

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  23. T9

    Ben Bowden pitches to Oswald Peraza

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  24. T9

    Bowden relieved Alvarado

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  25. T9

    Peraza hit for d'Arnaud

    ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  26. T9

    Cortes in right field.

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  29. B8

    · ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

  30. B8

    Bleday lined out to left.

    · ·

    LAA 3·ATH 10

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

3

Runs

10

5

Hits

14

1

Errors

0

9

TB

25

1

HR

3

4

BB

4

13

K

6

13

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 6, 25sim 96
    1110
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 96
    219
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 95
    1512
    28(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 95
    1111
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    74
    9(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 94
    12
    26(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

ATH vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.8%

ensemble · LAA favored

  • Elo Static

    51.9%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.7%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.1%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.