MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11ATL

ATL

61-72

121

MIA

62-71

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

12,453 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
54.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.9%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.2%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Max MeyerMIA
6.4± 1.9low
Spencer StriderATL
6.1± 3.1low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.6± 1.1high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.2± 1.2high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.4± 2.8high
Otto LopezMIA
2.3± 2.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high
Michael Harris IIATL
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.6low
JR RitchieATL
2.6± 2.0low
Grant HolmesATL
2.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

MIA

.751

OPS

◀

.715

.707

.323

OBP

.319

.324

5.10

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.34

3.28

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.11

1.17

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.25

8.8

K / 9

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 12 · MIA 1 (by 11)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	1	0	5	3	0	2	1	0	0	12
MIA	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. ProfarLF	.267	3	4	2	2	2	3	0
M. Olson1B	.265	5	1	2	2	1	0	2
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.301	1	2	0	0	0	4	0
D. BaldwinC	.276	3	2	0	0	0	3	0
O. Albies2B	.233	5	2	2	5	1	0	1
M. Harris IICF	.251	5	1	2	3	1	0	1
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.233	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FraleyRF	.600	5	0	3	0	0	0	1
V. BrujanSS	.273	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. WhiteCF	.234	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	12	11	12	5	10	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.267

.265

.301

.276

.233

.251

.233

.600

.273

.234

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. WentzRP	6.2	4	1	1	2	5	97
H. StrattonRP	2.1	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	5	1	1	2	6	114

Player

J. WentzRP

6.2

H. StrattonRP

2.1

Team

9.0

114

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
X. Edwards2B	.288	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MarseeCF	.356	3	0	2	0	0	1	1
H. HernandezLF	.266	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Wagaman1B	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.236	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. HicksC	.260	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. HillRF	.223	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
M. AcostaSS	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.246	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	5	1	0	2	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. GustoSP	3.2	7	9	9	5	2	96
F. TarnokRP	2.1	1	2	2	2	4	44
S. MartinezRP	1.0	2	1	1	2	1	43
J. Sanoja3B	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	26
Team	9.0	11	12	12	10	8	209

Team

ATL

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.