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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8ATH
ATH

ATH

64-75

11
3
STL

STL

68-71

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
22,670 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 11 · STL 3 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH00030224011
STL0001010013

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Sep 1·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 11–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
JJ Bleday

JJ Bleday

LF

2.400OPS

5-3

AB-H

3

R

3

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Jose Fermin

Jose Fermin

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH64-75
11
3
STL68-71
ATH64-75·STL68-71
ATH

ATH

64-75

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
2-33221020
SPRINT26.530
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
3-44230000
SPRINT27.148
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
1-55011001
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
2-55023001
SPRINT26.735
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
2-44220010
C. ThomasC. Thomas★RF
1-55011000
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
3-55333201
SPRINT27.457
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
3-55231102
SPRINT28.891
W. MacIverW. MacIver★C
0-44001001
Team17-4040111711336
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. MoralesL. Morales★SP
5.2522181
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.1100010
S. McGoughS. McGoughRP
2.0211030
Team9.08331121
STL

STL

68-71

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
3-44130000
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-33111110
SPRINT25.513
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-44000002
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-44000003
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-33011001
SPRINT2872
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-44110002
SPRINT27.354
P. PagesP. Pages★C
1-33010001
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
0-44000002
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
0-33000000
G. HampsonG. Hampson2B
0-11000000
C. PrietoC. Prieto3B
0-11000001
J. FerminJ. FerminLF
1-11011000
SPRINT27.148
Team8-35353831112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. GrayS. Gray★SP
6.01177353
R. FernandezR. FernandezRP
1.1433000
C. RoycroftC. RoycroftRP
1.2211010
Team9.0171111363

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • L. Morales
    91 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      54%·97.3 mph·5% whiff
    • ST
      26%·81.9 mph·56% whiff
    • CH
      12%·89.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.8 mph·100% whiff
  • S. McGough
    31 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      45%·91.3 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      29%·84.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Sterner
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      46%·93.9 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      38%·82.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      17%·87.8 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • S. Gray
    82 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      26%·92.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      24%·80.7 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      17%·86.5 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.3 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      13%·85.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Roycroft
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      52%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      38%·87.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      10%·97.3 mph·— whiff
  • R. Fernandez
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • SL
      47%·86.0 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      42%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

17

Hits

8

11

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Sep 1ATHATH11@STLSTL3today
Sep 2ATHATH1@STLSTL2
Sep 3ATHATH1@STLSTL5

Season series

ATH leads series 1-0

Sep 1ATHATH11@STLSTL3today
Sep 2ATHATH1@STLSTL2
Sep 3ATHATH1@STLSTL5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 4th Inning

ATHATH
J. Bleday

J. Bleday

LF

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.400 OPS

L. Morales

L. Morales

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

STLSTL
J. Fermin

J. Fermin

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 7 ER · 11 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATH beat STL 11-3. Bleday's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+24pp→ 60% WP

Bleday · homered to right (381 feet), Hernaiz scored.

STLBottom 4th Inning · 3-1
+12pp→ 40% WP

Herrera · homered to left (418 feet).

ATHTop 6th Inning · 5-1
+8pp→ 89% WP

Bleday · homered to right (428 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH00030224011
STL0001010013

Period scoring

ATH won 4 · STL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
1

Inn 4

Bleday 2

Herrera 1

0
0

Inn 5

2
1

Inn 6

Thomas 1

Winn 1

2
0

Inn 7

Rooker 1

4
0

Inn 8

Soderstrom 2

0
1

Inn 9

Ferm 1

ATH
STL

Play-by-play · 563 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 11·STL 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  3. B9

    Hampson popped out to first.

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  11. B9

    Scott McGough pitches to Garrett Hampson

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  12. B9

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  13. B9

    Church flied out to left.

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  15. B9

    Scott McGough pitches to Nathan Church

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  16. B9

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  17. B9

    Walker flied out to center.

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  19. B9

    Scott McGough pitches to Jordan Walker

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  20. B9

    ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  21. B9

    Fermín singled to left, Saggese scored.

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  26. B9

    Scott McGough pitches to Jose Fermin

    · ·

    ATH 11·STL 3

  27. B9

    Fermín hit for Pagés

    ·

    ATH 11·STL 2

  28. B9

    ·

    ATH 11·STL 2

  29. B9

    Saggese doubled to shortstop.

    ·

    ATH 11·STL 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 11·STL 2

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

STL

Home

11

Runs

3

17

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

31

TB

12

3

HR

1

3

BB

1

6

K

12

19

LOB

16

Player projections

STL vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    4.7± 3.0low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    0.6± 1.2low

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    50.5%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.1%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.2%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 6, 25sim 98
    1110
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 97
    1811
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    33
    11(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 94
    268
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 94
    12
    26(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 93
    265
    15(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872